澳大利亚前总理:今天的亚洲给我们出了一道难题(图)

 z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

 z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
墨尔本如何在冷战后由美国占据主导地位的西太平洋地区容忍中国越来越高的期望值是该地区目前正面临的难题。美国是否决意保持它在亚太地区的主导地位？还是愿意建立多边论坛，让相关国家共同制定规则？如何处理这一问题将决定太平洋地区能否实现持续和平。z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马在最近访问亚洲时宣布了在澳大利亚达尔文派驻2500名美国海军陆战队士兵的决定，这一决定除了象征性的姿态外很难看出其他意义，它充其量是一种挑衅性的提醒，宣布美国决心留在亚太地区。但美国并没有明确的目的。z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

亚太地区所有国家都欢迎中国崛起，但这需要中国遵守国际公认的规则。当然，每个国家都应该遵守国际规则。但如果中国在制定规则时没有发言权，就不可避免会出现紧张局势。z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

很难预料美国在亚太地区的角色会怎样变化。中国的经济和军事实力都迅速崛起。而另一方面，美国则在经济实力萎缩的同时继续在军事上占据主导地位。无论如何，美国加强亚太地区军力的行为肯定会引发中国方面激烈的反应。遏制中国无法解决亚洲安全问题。z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

朝鲜半岛、中国台湾、南海岛屿及航道都是美中两国可能引起争议的问题。虽然这些问题至关重要，但双方都应该采取外交手段尽量控制中美敌对情绪的发展，避免爆发新一轮冷战。z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

在现有条件下，用军事威胁来回应中国的崛起并非明智之举。中国正在实现军事现代化，力求成为重要的海上强国，而这导致很多中国观察家要求增加透明度。但美国是否会就其自身的军事实力向中国提供信息非常值得怀疑。对这一问题的正确看法是，美国的防卫预算占全世界总防卫开支的43%，而中国的军费开支却只有7%。z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

没有哪个国家愿意详细谈论自己的军力。太多观察家忘记了中国的核武器只是一种震慑——中国的核武器数量太少，很难发起主动攻击。只要其他核国家响应，中国是首批愿意承诺不首先使用核武器的国家之一。z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

中国看似没有兴趣仿效19世纪的欧洲列强，也无意仿效20世纪上半世纪的日本帝国主义。担心中国有此野心的人忽略了中国的历史。中国无法忘记19及20世纪早期西方列强强加给中日两国的不平等条约带来的痛苦回忆。中国在对美、日、澳，或许还有印度的遏制中国联盟作出反应时会牢牢记住这段历史。z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

最近日印两国防务部长公布的合作协议很可能被中国视为来自美国的压力。中国领导人将再次想起目前实施的遏制政策，这种冷战战略思维对西太平洋的和平发展非常不利。z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

虽然历史背景非常重要，但西方的战略立场取决于今天的行为。比如，虽然可能还做得不够，但中国已经试图协助解决朝鲜问题。为了缓和地区紧张局势，或许美国应该启动其一直逃避的与北朝鲜的直接会谈，这或许有助于解决该国政权造成的安全问题。z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

此外，南沙群岛争端应通过国际管辖权加以解决。中国大陆、越南、中国台湾、菲律宾、马来西亚和文莱都宣称对南沙岛屿拥有主权，这些小岛因其石油储量和商业渔业价值而显得弥足珍贵。重要的是主权争议国家应该遵守国际法，承诺保持区域航道畅通无阻。z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

外交斡旋而非武力打击是实现上述目标的最佳方式。外交斡旋当然要以实力为后盾，但美国拥有足够的实力，而不用依靠亚太地区进一步军事化。这些冲突的和平解决取决于能否在决策过程中给予中国发言权，但这意味着美中两国都必须放弃地区称霸的野心。z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

1954年首次台海危机期间，中国扬言要“解放”台湾，并开始炮轰近海的金门和马祖等岛屿。在美国考虑对中国发动核打击时，澳大利亚总理罗伯特·孟席斯悄悄对美国总统艾森豪威尔说，“如果目的是争夺台湾，这场战争和我们无关，只是你们自己的问题。”孟席斯是对的，他清楚美国目标和澳大利亚国家利益之间的区别。z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

美国永远也不可能在亚洲大陆进行大规模登陆作战。仅靠空袭无法赢得战争，而美国不会挑起核战争。因此在澳大利亚北部派驻美国海军陆战队员看起来毫无意义。这些部队根本没有理由待在那里。此外，他们还引发了澳大利亚公众舆论对国家安全关键问题的不必要的争议。z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

今天的亚洲给我们出了一道全新而独特的难题。这种局势造成的困境需要全新的解决方案，而不是老掉牙的冷战思维方式。z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
马尔科姆·弗雷泽 澳大利亚前总理z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

【本文摘自《公共外交季刊》2012年夏季号总第10期】z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

Melbourne, how in the post-Cold War dominated the Western Pacific Region by the United States tolerate the increasingly high expectations in the region is currently facing the problem. The United States is determined to maintain its dominant position in the Asia-Pacific region? Or willing to establish a multilateral forum for relevant countries to the rules? How to deal with this issue will determine the Pacific ability to achieve sustained peace.z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
U.S. President Barack Obama announced in his recent visit to Asia, the decision of the 2500 U.S. Marines stationed in Darwin, Australia, and other implications of this decision is difficult to see in addition to symbolic gesture, it is at best a provocative reminder, declared that the United States is determined to stay in the Asia-Pacific region. The United States has no clear purpose.z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
All countries in the Asia-Pacific region are welcome China's rise, but this requires China to comply with internationally recognized rules. Of course, every country should abide by international rules. However, if the rules no right to speak, and inevitably there will be tensions.z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Difficult to predict what will happen to change the role of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region. Economic and military strength of China's rapid rise. The United States, on the other hand, the shrinking economic strength to continue the military to dominate. In any case, the behavior of the United States to strengthen the military power of the Asia-Pacific region will certainly lead to the strong reaction of the Chinese side. To contain China can not solve the security issues in Asia.z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
The Korean peninsula, Taiwan, China, South China Sea islands and the fairways are the United States and China may be controversial. Although these questions is vital, but both sides should take diplomatic means to try to control the development of Sino-US hostility, to avoid a new outbreak of the Cold War.z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Under existing conditions, use of military threats in response to the rise of China is not wise. Chinese military modernization is being achieved, and strive to become an important maritime power, which led to many China watchers requirements to increase transparency. Very doubtful whether the United States to provide information on its own military strength. The correct view on this issue, the U.S. defense budget accounts for 43 percent of the world's total defense spending, but only 7 percent of China's military spending.z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
No country wants to discuss in detail their own military power. Too many observers forget China's nuclear weapons just a deterrent - China's number of nuclear weapons is too small, it is difficult to initiate active attack. As long as the other nuclear countries have responded to China is one of the first willing to commit to no first use of nuclear weapons one of the countries.z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
China seemed to have no interest to follow the example of 19th century European powers, and has no intention to follow the example of the 20th century and a half centuries of Japanese imperialism. Concerned that China has ignored China's history of this ambition. China can not forget the painful memories of the 19th and early 20th century, Western powers imposed unequal treaties between China and Japan. China to respond to the United States, Japan, Australia, and perhaps in India to contain China Union will keep in mind this history.z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Announced a cooperation agreement at the recent defense ministers in China and India are likely to be as pressure from the United States. Chinese leaders will once again think of the current implementation of the policy of containment, this Cold War strategic thinking is very detrimental to the peaceful development of the western Pacific.z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Although the historical background is very important, but the West's strategic position depends on the behavior of today. For example, although it may also have done enough, but China has been trying to help resolve the North Korean issue. In order to ease tensions in the region, perhaps the U.S. should start direct talks with North Korea that has been evading, which may help to solve the security problems caused by the regime.z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
In addition, the Spratly Islands dispute should be resolved through international jurisdiction. Mainland China, Vietnam, China, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei all claim sovereignty over the Nansha Islands, these islands is because of its oil reserves and the value of commercial fisheries is precious. Important is the dispute over sovereignty countries should abide by international law, committed to maintaining the smooth flow of regional waterway.z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Diplomacy rather than force to combat is the best way to achieve these goals. The diplomacy of course, to the strength of the backing, but the U.S. has enough strength, rather than rely on the further militarization of the Asia-Pacific region. Peaceful settlement of these conflicts depends on whether to give China a say in the decision-making process, but this means that the United States and China must abandon ambitions for regional hegemony.z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
1954 for the first time during the Taiwan Strait crisis, China has threatened to "liberate" Taiwan, and began shelling the offshore islands of Kinmen and Matsu. In the United States is considering to launch a nuclear strike against China, the Australian Prime Minister Robert Menzies quietly U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower said, "If the aim is to compete in Taiwan, the war and has nothing to do, just your own problem." Menzies is , He knows the difference between U.S. objectives and the Australian national interest.z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Never be able to carry out large-scale landing operations in the Asian continent. Alone air strikes can not win the war, the United States does not provoke a nuclear war. U.S. Marines stationed in northern Australia looks meaningless. These forces there is no reason to stay there. In addition, they lead to unnecessary disputes of Australian public opinion on key issues of national security.z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Asia today, give us a new and unique challenges. The difficulties caused by this situation requires new solutions, rather than old-fashioned Cold War way of thinking.z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Malcolm Fraser, former Australian Prime Ministerz6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
This article is excerpted from "public diplomacy the summer of 2012, Section 10 of the Quarterly】z6fRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语