老大心态放大美国衰落阴影 超级大国走下神坛(组图)

9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

谈论美国衰落的人都“不知道自己在说些什么”？9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

“美国衰落”的话题，在2012年的美国总统大选中不会缺席。共和党总统参选人罗姆尼指出，奥巴马及其政府高官断定美国处于无可挽回的衰落之中。奥巴马随后称，任何谈论美国正在衰落的人都“不知道自己在说些什么”。9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

美国媒体透露，奥巴马此言源于一篇文章的影响，其作者是新近出版《美国打造的世界》的新保守派思想家罗伯特·卡根，他目前担任罗姆尼的国家安全和外交政策特别顾问。这本薄薄的小册子，恰逢其时地成为一剂强心针，让政治家们有理由相信美国没有衰落，也绝对不能衰落。通读全册，可以感到与其说卡根是要论证美国没有衰落，不如说他是要警告美国人绝对不能听任美国衰落，因为美国的衰落很可能意味着“自由国际秩序”的终结。9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

他认为“经济增长与国际影响力之间并非简单地相关”，未来唯一能够影响美国实力地位的是中国的经济增长。他警告，美国人面前真正的危险是相信美国已经或即将衰落，或是认为在清理国内事务时可以暂时放弃对世界承担的责任。卡根表示，帝国或大国终有衰落之时，但美国的衰落之时远未到来。美国面临的最大问题是能否解决最紧迫的经济和社会问题，如果美国不能解决其财政危机，将很可能面临经济衰落，继而影响其维持军事和国际影响力。9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
世界重心由西向东转移，意味着西方全球霸权结束？9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

并不是每个美国战略思想家都像卡根这样对美国充满信心。美国国际关系学者布热津斯基表示，世界重心由西向东的转移意味着西方全球霸权的结束，世界权力开始分散，不再集中在西方或美国的手里，亚洲正在崛起，全球民众的政治觉醒与躁动也时常带有反西方情绪。他警告美国不能再当“世界警察”，因为美国已使自己面临破产、国内的民怨和国际上的合法性丧失。他对美国国内日趋极端的贫富分化表示忧虑。他抨击美国政治的高度党派性以及由此陷入的政治僵局，同时批评美国民众对外部世界“无知”以及不愿作出短期的牺牲以换取长期的复兴。9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

布热津斯基称，一些欧洲国家和印度、日本等已经开始评估美国衰落对各自国家利益的潜在影响及应对之策。他认为，在“后美国时代”，没有哪一个大国能够成为统治性力量，国际社会可能陷入大国竞争的不稳定甚至混乱之中。“事实上，21世纪世界的战略复杂性使大国无法获取霸权。但那些今天梦想美国崩溃的人将来可能会后悔，后美国世界将日趋复杂和混乱。”他提出美国应复兴自身，同时推动形成一个扩大的、合作的西方(从北美、欧洲，经过欧亚，一直到日本和韩国)，并在东方支持一个可以适应中国崛起的复杂平衡。9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

普林斯顿大学教授约翰·伊肯伯里则认为，“后美国时代”的国际秩序将保持稳定，基于国际法和国际机构而建立起来的“自由国际秩序”在没有美国强权支持的情况下亦可自立，新兴大国将支持此秩序。他认为，美国可以通过维持联盟网络和伙伴关系以及多边政策保持强大。美国肯塔基大学助理教授罗伯特·法利说，霸权从不意味着在任何时候实现任何美国想要的结果，霸权实际上意味着犯下可怕的错误却无需遭受可怕的后果，现在随着美国与其他大国差距的减小，美国犯错误的余地变窄了。9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
中美问题专家资中筠认为，美国当前面临一个新拐点，在全球化背景下出现了三个新的因素，一是美国作为“世界领袖”的负担越来越沉重，二是所谓虚拟经济离实体经济越来越远，三是全球化背景下美国贫富差距扩大到难以忍受的地步，这些问题都在腐蚀美国的民主制度。她指出，美国制度的活力历来在于其有效的纠错机制，但现在资本大亨的贪婪、军工复合体的既得利益和不顾大局的党派斗争，很可能会绑架美国真正的利益。9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

资中筠指出，美国自二战结束到现在最大的战略目标就是维持其唯一世界领袖的地位，警惕任何潜在的挑战。她认为，“美国不管有多大的困难，在一个相当长的时间内它必然是超强的力量，远远超过任何老二”。9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

中国社科院去年年底发布的《国际形势黄皮书》认为，受美国国内政治经济形势的限制，美国已无力独自承担全球事务的领导责任，其他力量中心尚无力替代美国的领导地位，提供全球公共品，世界格局进入一个“无领导者的时代”。黄皮书强调，跟其他大国相比，美国的经济优势相对缩小，但整体实力依然领先，美国依然是全球综合国力最强大的国家。9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
谈“美国衰落”，必提及“中国崛起”？9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

在谈论“美国衰落”的时候，常会有一个如影随形的话题，就是“中国崛起”。“中国是美国潜在的最大挑战”，持此观点的美国人不在少数。9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

卡根认为，如果美国衰落，有可能成为“第二个超级大国”的就是中国，而中国以及俄罗斯的国家特性使之最终将损害或颠覆“自由经济秩序”。他称中国崛起为美国面临的所有挑战中“最明显的”，尽管这些挑战不比美国在冷战中遇到的挑战大。卡根质疑“中国模式”关于经济战略性决策是否非常有效，但从长远来看未必能够灵活适应变化的国际经济、政治和战略环境。9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

布热津斯基则认为，美中未来能够避免正面冲突，避免历史上大国衰落大国崛起迎头相撞的情形，部分原因是美中经济相互依赖，彼此清楚伤害对方终将伤及自身。9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

资中筠认为，到目前为止，中美两国没有不可调和的根本利益冲突，也没有领土争端，未来中美关系中的决定性因素是两国如何解决各自内部的问题。如果美国不能摆脱困境，它就会把困难转嫁到国际上来，中国就会成为替罪羊，造成两国关系的紧张。她认为，最坏的情形是中国被美国拖入军备竞赛的泥沼，两国关系走向恶性循环，指向危险莫测的终点；最好的情形是中美都各自找到克服内部困难的有效办法，两国关系进入一个比较平稳和良性的循环。9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

在北京大学国际关系学院院长王缉思与美国布鲁金斯学会约翰·桑顿中国中心主任李侃如最近共同推出的报告《中美战略互疑：解析与应对》中，王缉思指出：“中国的一般观点是，从长远眼光来看，美国基本上是一个正在走向衰落的国家。美国的金融动荡、巨额赤字、高失业率、经济复苏乏力以及国内政治的极化，被视为美国衰落的许多标志中的几个。”他们认为，尽管中美在很多问题上具有丰富的交流经验，但中美关系确实存在着大量深层的战略互疑，且呈增长之势；中国关切美国对华的战略立场，美国关心中国在国际体系中的影响，以及会对美国推进其长期原则和利益的能力造成怎样的影响。9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

美国在衰落吗？美国是在持续衰落之中，还是在经历困难阶段，终将恢复？对美国来说，衰落是“一种选择”，还是不可避免的命运？如果美国真的在衰落，那么谁将取而代之，或者世界将陷入“混乱的无序”？对于这些问题，没有人比美国人自己更渴望探究答案了。9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
“唯一”超级大国已露败象 美国走下傲慢神坛 9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
美国是否衰落话题的炽热，反证了21世纪初美国的战略焦虑和迷思。9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

物极必反，盛极而衰，天下事莫不如此，因人、因国、因事表现形式不同而已。从历史角度来看，美国亦逃脱不了这一铁律。9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

美国最为不可一世之时，恰恰是其从巅峰跌落之际。冷战的结束将美国置于世界“唯一”超级大国的境地，“历史终结”的幻觉和新保守主义浪潮的推动令美国更陷飘飘然的盲动。在美国“例外论”思维的极度张扬中，美国“无所不能”的断语逐渐演变为蔑视全球的种种单边主义行动。“9·11”事件发生后，美国发动的阿富汗、伊拉克两场战争成为其神话破灭的拐点，随之露出了美国左支右绌的败絮。9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

关于美国是否衰落的热议有见仁见智的现实参照。当今美国社会两极分化凸显，经济复苏乏力，立法、司法机构中的党派政争更显对国家发展决策的掣肘，经济实力难以强撑“世界警察”般在全球各地常驻军力，同时打赢两场战争的军事战略被迫做出调整。以伊拉克战争开战理由的妄谬为标志，美国在全球事务道义上的软实力遭到质疑。9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

高处不胜寒。无论其是否承认，更无论其是否情愿，美国已经走下曾经不可一世的神坛。9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

美国国内对其是否衰落的争论更多地表现出直率的反思，“唱衰”的目的在于推动内外政策调整，以保持不衰。对于国际社会，特别是中国社会就此话题的议论，美国则表现出难掩反感的极度敏感。这种微妙差异的原因或许在于，为实现“不当世界第二”的誓愿，美国情不自禁地需要对国内军工复合体的刺激，需要在全球范围内寻找和确立可能挑战其霸主地位的“假想敌”。在新的形势下，不断发展壮大的中国便成为其全球战略焦虑的聚焦点。美国亚太战略的调整及诸多“项庄舞剑，意在沛公”的动作，均为美国着意表明其并未衰落的战略性反弹。9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

在历史长河中，大国崛起与衰落是一个综合因素演变的进程。迄今为止，美国仍为综合实力最强的全球唯一超级大国，并千方百计延长这一历史进程。在已露败象之时，美国几近条件反射般以更多使用无人机、特种部队等新形式显示力量，并多方遏制其眼中的潜在对手，以维护全球霸主地位。然而，在时代大潮的冲刷中，更为世界格局多极化的趋势不可阻挡。如若美国未能据此审时度势，而一味贪恋于“强权政治”的延续，不能根除迷信武力的痼疾和滥用武力的冲动，其结果只能是在下坡路上愈滑愈远。9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

Talk about American decline "does not know himself what to say?9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
The topic of "American decline" in the 2012 U.S. presidential election will not be absent. Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney said Obama and his senior government officials concluded that the U.S. is in irreversible decline. Obama later said that any talk about the U.S. was in decline "did not know himself what to say.9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
U.S. media said Obama's remark from an article, its author was recently published in the United States to build the world "neo-conservative thinker Robert Kagan, he currently serves as Romney's national security and foreign policy Special Adviser. This thin booklet, at the right moment to become a booster, politicians have reason to believe that the United States did not decline, but also must not decline. Read the whole book, you can feel so much Kagan is to demonstrate the United States did not decline, but rather that he is to warn the Americans absolutely can not allow America's decline, because the decline of the United States is likely to mean the end of the liberal international order.9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
He believes that "between economic growth and international influence is not simply related to the future the only way to affect the U.S. position of strength, China's economic growth. He warned the Americans in front of the real danger is to believe that the United States has been or is about to decline, or that can temporarily give up the responsibility of the world in the clean-up of domestic affairs. Kagan said that the Empire or country will eventually decline when the decline of the United States when far from coming. The biggest problem facing the United States is the ability to solve the most pressing economic and social issues, if the United States can not solve its financial crisis, are likely to face economic decline, thereby affecting its ability to maintain military and international influence.9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
The world's center of gravity from west to east transfer, means the end of Western global hegemony?9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Not every American strategic thinkers have confidence in the United States such as Kagan. American scholars of international relations, Brzezinski said, the world's center of gravity from west to east transfer means the Western global hegemony of the end of world power began to disperse, no longer concentrated in the hands of the West or the United States, Asia is rising, people around the world, political awakening and restlessness often with anti-Western sentiment. He warned that the U.S. can no longer when the "world police", because the United States has made itself facing bankruptcy, the loss of the grievances and international legitimacy. He expressed concern that the United States increasingly extreme gap between rich and poor. He criticized the highly partisan American politics and was thrown into the political deadlock, also criticized the American people on the outside world "ignorance" and do not want to make short-term sacrifice in exchange for long-term rehabilitation.9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Brzezinski said that some European countries and India, Japan, have already begun to evaluate the decline of the potential impact and countermeasures of their own national interests. He believes that in the "post-American", which country to become the dominant force, the international community is likely to fall into a great power rivalry, unstable or even chaotic. "In fact, the strategic complexity of the world in the 21st century, the big states can not obtain hegemony. But those who dream of the United States today collapse may regret in the future, post-American world will become increasingly complex and confusing." His revival itself, while promoting the formation of an expanded cooperation in the West (from North America, Europe, through Europe and Asia, to Japan and Korea), and in the east support can be adapted to the complex balance of China's rise.9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Princeton University professor John Ikenberry, "post-American" international order will remain stable, based on international law and institutions and the establishment of "a liberal international order" in the case without the support of American power can be self-reliant, the emerging powers will support this order. He believes that the United States can maintain the alliance networks and partnerships, and multilateral policy to maintain a strong. Robert Farley, University of Kentucky assistant professor, hegemony means never at any time to achieve any desired result by the United States hegemony in fact means to commit the terrible mistake but do not need to suffer the terrible consequences, and now as the U.S. reduce the gap with other big countries, narrow the room for mistakes in the United States.9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Zi Yun of China and the United States of Experts believe that the United States are facing a new turning point, three new factors in the context of globalization, one the United States as a "world leader" of the increasingly heavy burden, the second is the so-called virtual economy from the entity economy farther and farther, the widening wealth gap in the context of globalization to the point of unbearable, these problems are in the corrosion of the U.S. democratic system. She pointed out that the vitality of the American system has always been its effective mechanism for correcting errors, but the greedy tycoon of capital, the vested interests of the military industrial complex and the overall situation regardless of partisan struggle, it may be the kidnapping of American interests.9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Zi Yun pointed out that the United States since the end of World War II to the status of the biggest strategic goal is to maintain its unique world leaders to guard against any potential challenge. She believes that "the United States regardless of how difficult it must be the super power in a very long time, far more than any dick".9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
"The international situation, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, released late last year, the Beige Book" that, subject to the limitations of the political and economic situation in the United States, the United States alone has been unable to bear the leadership responsibilities of global affairs, the other power centers there is no force on America's leadership position, the provision of global public goods The pattern of the world into the era of a "leaderless." Yellow Book stresses, compared with other big countries, the economic advantages of the United States is relatively narrow, but the overall strength is still leading the United States is still the most powerful country of the world's comprehensive national strength.9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Talk about "America's decline will be referred to the" rising China "?9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
When talking about "America's decline, often there will be a haunting topic, is the rise of China". "China is potentially the greatest challenge in the United States, a minority of Americans hold this view.9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Kagan believes that if the United States decline, could become the "second superpower" is the Chinese national identity in China and Russia so that will ultimately harm or subvert the "free economic order. He said that China's rise for all of the challenges facing the United States the "most obvious", despite these challenges than encountered in the United States in the Cold War challenges. Kagan questioned the "China model" is very effective on the strategic decision-making, in the long run may not be able to flexibly adapt to the changing international economic, political and strategic environment.9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Brzezinski believes that the future of the United States and be able to avoid confrontation, to avoid the decline of the big country in the history of the rise of great powers the situation head-on collision, in part because the US-China economic interdependence with each other clearly hurt each other will ultimately hurt their own.9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Zi Jun that, so far, the fundamental interests of China and the United States there is no irreconcilable conflict, there is no territorial dispute, the decisive factor in the future Sino-US relations is how the two countries to resolve their own internal problems. If the U.S. does not bail out, it would difficult be passed on to the international up, China will become a scapegoat, causing tension between the two countries. She believes that the worst-case scenario is the U.S. into the quagmire of an arms race in China, relations between the two countries toward a vicious circle, point to the end of the dangerous and unpredictable; the best situation is that China and the United States have their own to find an effective way to overcome internal difficulties, the two national relations have entered a relatively stable and healthy circulation.9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Wang Jisi, dean of the Institute of International Relations, Peking University, and Kenneth Lieberthal, director of the Brookings Institution, John L. Thornton China Center such as the recent launch of the report "Sino-US strategic mutual suspected: general view of China's resolve to deal with", said: "Wang Jisi yes, long-term perspective, the United States is essentially an ongoing decline of countries the U.S. financial turmoil, huge deficits, high unemployment, weak economic recovery and domestic political polarization, many of the signs of America's decline is considered a few. "They believe that China and the United States has a rich exchange of experiences on many issues, but the Sino-US relations does exist deep strategy of mutual doubt, and there was a growing trend; China concerned about China's strategic position in the United States, United States is concerned China in the international system, and will the United States to advance its long-standing principles and interests to what kind of impact.9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
The United States in decline? The United States is in continuous decline, or going through a difficult phase, will eventually restore? For the U.S., the decline of "an option", or the inevitable fate? If the U.S. really in decline, then who will be replaced, or the world will be plunged into chaos disorder "? For these problems, there is no more than the Americans themselves eager to explore the answer.9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
"The only superpower has been exposed to failure down the arrogance of an altar as the United States9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Whether the United States the decline of the hot topics, goes to prove that the early 21st century America's strategic anxiety and myths.9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Extremes meet, Boom-bust world affairs has been true from person to person, from country to country due to different things manifestation only. From a historical point of view, the United States can not escape the iron law.9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
America's most mighty when, it is precisely its drop from the peak of the occasion. The end of the Cold War the United States at the world "only" superpower position, to promote the illusion of the "end of history" and neo-conservative tide of the United States more trap to get high and rashness. In the extreme publicity of U.S. "exceptionalism" thinking, "omnipotent" broken language gradually evolved into all the unilateralism of his contempt for global action. "9.11" incident, the U.S. war in Afghanistan, two wars in Iraq become its shattered the inflection point, followed by exposing the United States the total inadequacy of foul.9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Reference to whether the United States the decline of the hot matter of reality. Highlights current social polarization, economic recovery is weak, partisan political wrangling in the legislative, the judiciary is even more constraints on the national development decision-making, economic strength is difficult to Jiangcheng "world police" like the Permanent military power in the around the world, while winning two the military strategy of the war were forced to make adjustments. Jump to absurd casus belli of the war in Iraq as a symbol, the United States in global affairs, the moral of soft power has been questioned.9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Standing above the crowd. Whether or not they admit, but regardless of whether the reluctance, the U.S. has stepped down from the altar of the once all-powerful.9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
The United States to its debate over whether the decline of more demonstration of candid reflection, "bad-mouthing" the aim of promoting the adjustment of domestic and foreign policies, to keep the bad. For the international community, particularly the discussion of this topic in Chinese society, the U.S. performance is extremely sensitive to conceal his objectionable. Such subtle differences in the reasons perhaps is that, for the realization of the "improper second in the world," vows, the United States can not help but need to stimulate domestic military industrial complex, need to find and establish the "imaginary enemy" may challenge its dominance in the worldwide. In the new situation, China will continue to thrive, become the focal point of its global strategy anxiety. The adjustment of the Asia-Pacific strategy and the ulterior intention of covering up "action, both the United States deliberately strategic rebound that did not decline.9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
History, the rise of great powers and the decline of the evolving process of a combination of factors. So far, the United States is still the comprehensive strength of the strongest the world's only superpower, and do everything possible to extend this historical process. Have been exposed to defeat like the United States almost a conditioned reflex like to greater use of unmanned aerial vehicles, special forces and other new forms of show of force, and multi-curb its perceived potential adversaries, to maintain global dominance. However, in the scouring of the tide of the times, more multi-polar world pattern trend can not be stopped. Should the United States has failed thus assess the situation and blindly eager for the continuation of "power politics", not eradicate superstition force the chronic and excessive use of force impulse, the result can only be more in the downhill slide farther.9RSRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语