经济学人：全球经济命悬德国 默克尔，都看妳的了

kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

世界经济仍将必须设法解决其他国家经济薄弱及全球经济增长缓慢的问题。不过若采取一定措施，全球经济也将远离灾难一大步。这就得看你了，默克尔总理。kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

“上救生艇！”关于全球经济，债券市场发出了这个可怕的信号。投资者纷纷急着购买美国、德国和数目越来越少的其它“安全”经济体的主权债券。若人们准备倒贴钱购买德国政府的两年期债券和愿意以低于1.5%的名义收益率向美国政府提供十年期贷款，他们要么是预测到连年的滞胀和货币贬值，要么就是害怕即将发生的灾难。不论是哪种情况，世界经济都出现了很严重的问题。kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

这个很严重的问题就是经济未能稳步增长， 同时发生金融危机的风险也加剧了。如今，全球的经济体都越来越脆弱，欧元区外围的经济衰退越来越严重。美国连续三个月的就业数据疲软，说明其经济复苏可能遇到困难而那些最大的新兴市场在经济发展方面似乎也碰了壁。巴西的GDP增长率低于日本，印度的状况一团糟。连中国经济减速的幅度也越来越大。在先前的经济衰退后，一场全球性经济复苏很快便式微了，这说明日本式经济滞胀正蔓延至全球。kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

但与欧元区越来越高的解体风险相比， 这看上去还算好的。欧盟这个全球最大的经济区可能会陷入一系列的银行破产、债务违约和经济衰退的困境中——2008年雷曼兄弟破产所造成的混乱与这些金融灾难相比简直是小巫见大巫。希腊在6月17日举行选举后可能退出欧元区，西班牙的银行业衰退以及欧洲的跨境资金流迅速流失，以上种种都令情况更加危急。而且这一次的危机会更难应付。2008年，各央行的银行家和政治家还共同努力阻止经济衰退，如今这些政治家却都在为了些小事吵吵闹闹。而且即使各央行的技术专家官员能够采取更多措施，他们可用的弹药也比以前少了。kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

雅典制造危机，柏林加深危机kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

没人想亲身体验以上各色金融灾难。如今该由欧洲的政治家对欧元区进行终极的有力治理了。虽然即使他们提出一个可靠的解决方案，也不一定能保证世界经济能平稳发展；但如果不拿出一个解决方案，那肯定会发生一场经济灾难。而让人吃惊的是，世界经济的命运竟掌握在德国总理安吉拉•默克尔（Angela Merkel）手中。kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

从某个角度来讲，指责默克尔总理似乎不公平。哪国的政治家都未能采取有力行动——从德里到华盛顿皆如此，前者的改革已停滞不前，后者出现政党瘫痪，威胁政府在年底增加税收和削减开支，而同时实行这两项措施将出现很大的问题。在欧洲，正如德国人一直所指出的，投资者从不担心谨慎的安吉拉政府，十年前安吉拉的前任费了很大劲对经济进行了重组；问题在于，投资者对治理状况较差、未经改革的国家丧失了信心。kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

但也不要太同情她。首先，过往的优势如今已没什么价值了：如果欧元区崩溃，德国将损失惨重。一些德国银行本周信用评级被下调就预示着这种情况的发生。再者，希腊、爱尔兰、葡萄牙、意大利、西班牙及其他债务国的经济政策无疑存在错误，而在过去三年中由于欧洲债权国的过失这些错误更严重了。过于注重实行财政紧缩，继续执行不完善的救市计划，拒绝制定财政和银行业一体化的明确方案（单一货币区需要这个方案才能存在下去）：这些都是欧元区濒临危机的原因。而由于这些应对政策大多是德国制定的，所以大部分责任应由柏林承担。kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

请你勇敢一点kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

关于安吉拉必须采取什么措施保护单一货币区， 除德国外的其他欧盟国家已达成共识。这些措施包括将首要关注点从财政紧缩转为经济增长；（用欧元区通用的储蓄保险、银行监管及对濒临破产的银行进行资本重组或解体的方法）形成银行联盟以补充单一货币；并以限定的形式分摊债务以创造共同的安全资产，让外围经济体有机会逐渐减轻债务负担。这是在华盛顿、北京、伦敦甚至是欧元区大部分国家的首都经常能听到的意见。为何欧洲最谨慎的政治家仍未采取行动？kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

批判她的人说她胆小——而在某个角度上他们说得对。安吉拉实际上从未向德国民众说明他们要在一个矛盾的做法——救助那些不值得救助的同盟及残酷的现实间作出选择——欧元区解体。那么多德国人反对分摊债务的一个原因是，他们错误地认为欧元区没有这项政策也能熬过去。但默克尔总理也有一项更大胆的双头策略。她认为，首先，她要求实行紧缩政策及拒绝救助同盟是让欧洲改革的唯一途径；其次，如果真的发生灾难，德国可以迅速应对，以挽救局面。kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

冒第一个险当然能获得一定的成功，即意大利总理西尔维奥•贝卢斯科尼（Silvio Berlusconi）下台和南欧的改革计划获得通过。这些计划直到最近似乎还是难以想象的。但实行这项策略的代价却迅速变大。由于过度的财政紧缩导致大规模经济衰退，这项策略现在反而弄巧成拙。欧洲大部分地区的债务负担在不断加重，极端的政见也越来越有吸引力了。这个得过且过的方法造成的动荡局面使投资者丧失信心，也增加了欧元区发生灾难的风险。kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

至于德国的观点，即一切都能在最后一刻被欧洲央行（ECB）向某国大量输入流动资金之类的措施拯救，看起来有风险。若西班牙出现全面的银行挤兑，那即便是有胆识的默克尔总理也可能无法阻挡。如果希腊退出欧元区，是的，那么德国民众会更相信罪人会得到惩罚；但是，就像本报之前所认为的，“希腊退出”会让希腊国内尸横遍野，整个欧洲也会受到影响。在整个危机中，默克尔总理都拒绝拿出一个像美国TARP计划那样，大胆得足以震惊各国市场并令其顺从的计划。kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

总之，即便她的策略已带来一些回报，其代价也十分惨重，现在她也任其自流了。她最迟需要在6月28日的欧洲峰会前为单一货币区制定一个清晰的计划，若希腊的选举引起人们恐慌的话就得更早。这项计划必须十分详细，以消除人们对德国承诺拯救欧元区的所有疑虑。而且其中必须包括直接用于进一步整合的分期付款，如保证利用联合基金来重组西班牙的银行。kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

这样她会有失去国内民众支持的风险，但承担这些风险，却有可能迅速获得回报。一旦德国明确承诺进行更广泛的整合，欧洲央行就会有机会采取更有力的措施——购买 多得多主权债券和为银行提供更强大的后盾。随着人们不那么害怕欧洲会发生金融灾难，恶性循环会因投资者恢复信心而转变为良性循环。kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

世界经济仍将必须设法解决其他国家经济薄弱及全球经济增长缓慢的问题。不过若采取一定措施，全球经济也将远离灾难一大步。这就得看你了，默克尔总理。kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

The world economy will continue to try to solve the problem of economies of other countries is weak and slow global economic growth. However, to take certain measures, the global economy will also be away from the disaster, a big step. This was to see you, Chancellor Angela Merkel.kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
"Lifeboat" on the global economy, the bond market have sent a terrible signal. Investors eager to buy the United States, Germany and the increase in the number of other "safe" economies of sovereign bonds. If people are prepared to lose out money to buy the biennium of the German government bonds and are willing to provide a 10-year term loan with less than 1.5% of the nominal rate of return to the U.S. government, they are either predicted years of stagflation and currency devaluation or fear of impending disaster. In either case, the world economy have emerged in a very serious problem.kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
This very serious problem is the economy failed to grow steadily, exacerbated by the simultaneous risk of financial crisis. Today, the world's economies are increasingly fragile, more and more serious economic recession of the euro area periphery. The United States for three consecutive months of employment data weak economic recovery may encounter difficulties while the largest emerging markets in economic development seems to have hit a wall. Brazil's GDP growth rate is lower than that of Japan, India, the status of a mess. Even the rate of China's economic slowdown is also growing. In the previous economic downturn, a global economic recovery soon decline, indicating that the Japanese economic stagnation has spread to the global.kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
But compared with the euro area increasingly high risk of disintegration, it looks pretty good. The plight of the EU the world's largest economic zone may be caught in a series of bank failures, debt defaults and the recession - compared to the chaos and financial disaster caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008 pales. Greece may exit from the euro after the elections on June 17, the Spanish banking industry recession and the European cross-border capital flow is rapid loss of the above make the situation more critical. And this crisis will be difficult to cope. 2008, central bankers and politicians have worked together to stop the recession, and now these politicians are nothing but noisy for little things. And even the technical experts of central bank officials can take additional measures to the ammunition available to them less than before.kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Athens to create a crisis, Berlin to deepen the crisiskcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
No one wants to experience the above colors of financial disaster. Today the European politicians the ultimate strong governance of the eurozone. Even if they are a reliable solution, not necessarily guarantee the smooth development of the world economy; but if you do not come up with a solution that will certainly be an economic disaster occurs. Surprising, the fate of the world economy actually lies in the German Chancellor Angela Merkel (Angela Merkel) in the hands.kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
From a certain perspective, accused Chancellor Angela Merkel does not seem fair. Which country's politicians have failed to take effective action - from Delhi to Washington are former reform has stalled, which political parties paralyzed, the threat of government at the end of tax increases and spending cuts, while the implementation of these two The measures will be the big problem. In Europe, as has been pointed out by the German investors never worried about the cautious Angela government ten years ago, Angela's predecessor, charges a lot of effort on economic restructuring; The problem is that investors' poor governance unreformed countries have lost confidence.kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
But do not be too sympathetic to her. First of all, the past advantage now of little value: If the euro-zone crash, the German losses. Some German banks this week, credit rating was lowered to indicate the occurrence of this situation. Furthermore, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy, Spain and other debtor countries, economic policy is no doubt there is an error, the fault of the European creditor countries in the past three years due to these errors more serious. Too much emphasis on fiscal austerity, and continue to implement the imperfect bailout plan, refused to enact a specific program of financial and banking integration (single currency area need this program to exist): These are the euro area to the brink of crisis reasons. These policy responses are most developed in Germany, so most of the responsibility should be the Berlin bear.kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
You bravekcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Angela must take measures to protect the single currency area, the other EU countries except Germany have reached a consensus. These measures include the primary concern from the financial constraints to economic growth; (euro area general deposit insurance, bank supervision and recapitalization of banks to the brink of bankruptcy or dissolution) the formation of bank alliances to complement the single currency; a limited form of sharing the debt in order to create a common security assets, so that peripheral economies have the opportunity to gradually reduce the debt burden. This is in Washington, Beijing, London and even the capital of most countries of the euro area often can hear the views. Why the most cautious of politicians in Europe has yet to take action?kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
The criticism of her people say she is timid - in a way they are right. Angela never actually explain to the German people in a contradictory approach - to choose between relief is not worth the rescue alliance, and the harsh reality - the euro zone disintegration. So many German against the apportionment of debt because they mistakenly believe that the euro area this policy can survive. But Chancellor Angela Merkel also has a bold double-headed strategy. She believes that, she asked the austerity policy and rejected the rescue alliance is the only way for European Reform; Second, if a disaster occurs, Germany to respond rapidly to save the situation.kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Take a risk, of course some success, the Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi (Silvio Berlusconi) to step down, and southern Europe, the reform program was adopted. These plans until recently seemed unimaginable. But the cost of implementing this strategy quickly. Lead to large-scale economic recession due to excessive fiscal austerity, this strategy is now even self-defeating. The debt burden is growing in most parts of Europe, the extreme political views have become increasingly attractive. The perfunctory unrest erode investor confidence, but also increase the risk of the euro area a disaster.kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
As for the German point of view, that everything can be at the last minute by the European Central Bank (ECB) to a country, a large number of input measures such as liquidity, save, looks at risk. Spain full bank run, even courageous Chancellor Angela Merkel may not stop. If Greece out of the euro, the German people believe that the sinner will be punished; However, like the newspaper before that make Greece, "Greek withdrawal from the country littered with corpses, the whole of Europe will be affected. Throughout the crisis, Chancellor Angela Merkel have refused to come up with a U.S. TARP program, bold enough to shock the national markets and ordered him to obey the plan.kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
In short, even if her strategy is to bring something in return, its price is also very heavy, and now she is also their own devices. The latest need to develop a clear plan for the single currency area before the European summit in June 28 elections in the Greek cause people to panic, then you have earlier. The plan must be very detailed, in order to eliminate all doubts that the German commitment to save the euro area. And must include direct for further integration of the installment, such as guaranteeing the use of joint funds to reorganize the Spanish bank.kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
So that she will lose the risk of domestic public support, but these risks, there may quickly return. Once Germany is a clear commitment to the broader integration of the European Central Bank will have the opportunity to take more forceful measures - to buy a lot more sovereign bonds and more powerful backing for the bank. As people are less afraid of the European financial disaster, the vicious cycle will restore investor confidence into a virtuous circle.kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
The world economy will continue to try to solve the problem of economies of other countries is weak and slow global economic growth. However, to take certain measures, the global economy will also be away from the disaster, a big step. This was to see you, Chancellor Angela Merkel.kcVRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语