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金砖四国」(BRIC,巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国)金光转淡,印度经济增长跌至9年新低

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BRIC countries economic growth fell

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「金砖四国」(BRIC,巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国)金光转淡,印度经济增长跌至9年新低,其余3国亦调低增长目标,反映欧债危机对新兴市场的影响渐浮现,减速更愈来愈明显。缺少这个主引擎,全球增长前景恐更黯淡。
 
印度上季国内生产总值(GDP)增长只有5.3%,远差于市场预期的6.1%,甚至比最悲观的估计5.5%还要差,令人大跌眼镜,主因两大支柱制造业收缩0.3%,农业亦只有轻微增长。
 
差过海啸 印度滞胀风险增
 
反观过去数年的辉煌数字,首季成绩更显得差强人意,增长之低为9年之最,甚至比金融海啸时更差;上个财年增长则为6.5%,同是02至03财年以来最低,亦比前年的8.4%大幅减速,加上通胀升至10%以上,滞胀风险不容忽视。
 
印度工商联合会(FICCI)秘书长Rajiv Kumar形容数据为灾难,慢增长及高通胀危机令人非常担忧;虽然当局政策失当常被归咎为危机主因,但外围经济忧虑,尤其是欧债危机,同样拖着印度后腿,因欧洲是主要出口市场。
 
巴西今公布GDP 料增0.5%
 
印度以外的其他金砖国亦遭受同样命运。巴西今天公布首季GDP,预期仅轻微增长0.5%,财长亦削减全年增长预测;俄罗斯早前同样作出下调,中国亦对「保八」有保留,一度将增长目标削至7.5%。
 
过去数年,金砖四国这4个新兴市场被视为「救世主」,在美国、欧洲及日本自身难保时,外界均依赖4国的高速增长担起半边天,拉上补下,令全球经济未至于陷入停滞。
 
大摩:菲泰印度尼西亚潜力看好
 
根据高盛的资料,金砖四国2000至2007年间,平均贡献全球经济增长只有27%,惟过去3年已飙升至超过50%,可见四国举足轻重。如今美日情况未许乐观,欧洲更深陷危机之中,金砖主引擎减速,全球增长前景恐「冻过水」。
 
摩根士丹利新兴市场主管Ruchir Sharma亦不抱期望,指市场已为印度数据感到失望,但更失望的可能在后头,其余3个金砖国的表现更受市场重视。
 
Sharma又指,当金砖四国正经历成长阵痛,需稍为退居二线时,其金光可能让给较小型的新兴市场,如印度尼西亚、菲律宾及泰国,且看这些未来之星能否摆脱欧债魔咒,成为下一轮的增长主动力。

BRIC (BRIC, Brazil, Russia, India, China) golden slowed economic growth in India fell to a nine-year low, the remaining three countries also lowered the growth target, reflecting the impact of the European debt crisis on emerging markets gradually emerge. deceleration is increasingly obvious. Lack of the main engine of global growth prospects fear more bleak.5fvRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
5fvRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
India in the previous quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew by only 5.3 percent, far worse than market expectations of 6.1%, even more than the most pessimistic estimate of 5.5% is even worse, is striking, the main cause of the two pillars of manufacturing industry contracted by 0.3%, agriculture is only a slight increase.5fvRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
5fvRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Worse than the tsunami in India stagflation risks to growth5fvRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
5fvRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Other hand, the brilliant figures of the past few years, the first quarter results even more unsatisfactory, low growth for nine years, even worse than the financial tsunami; the previous fiscal year increased 6.5%, the same since fiscal year 02-03 lowest 8.4% in the previous year, a sharp slowdown in inflation rose more than 10%, stagflation risks can not be ignored.5fvRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
5fvRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Rajiv Kumar, Secretary General of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) to describe the data very worrying for the disaster, slow growth and high inflation crisis; Administration's policy misconduct are often blamed for the crisis, the main cause, but external economic concerns, especially the debt crisis in Europe, the same hind legs dragging India, because Europe is a major export markets.5fvRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
5fvRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Brazil today announced the GDP expected to increase 0.5%5fvRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
5fvRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Outside India, other BRIC countries also suffered the same fate. Brazil today announced first quarter GDP is expected only a slight increase of 0.5 percent, the finance ministers also cut full-year growth forecast; Russia earlier also adjusted downwards, also "protect eight" have reservations about, once the growth target cut to 7.5%.5fvRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
5fvRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
In the past few years, the four emerging markets of BRIC as a "savior" in the United States, Europe and Japan itself is no guarantee that the outside world are dependent on the rapid growth of the four countries to take up half the sky, subsidizing, the global economy is not As to a standstill.5fvRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
5fvRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Morgan Stanley: Feitai Indonesia potential optimistic5fvRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
5fvRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
According to Goldman Sachs, the BRIC countries between 2000-2007, the average contribution to the global economy grew by only 27%, except for the past three years has soared to more than 50%, showing that the four countries pivotal. Today, the United States and Japan is not optimistic, Europe finds itself in crisis, the the BRIC main engine deceleration, global growth prospects, fear of "frozen water".5fvRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
5fvRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Ruchir Sharma, Morgan Stanley, head of emerging markets do not hold expectations of the futures market for the Indian data are disappointed, but disappointment may come, the performance of the other three BRIC countries more market attention.5fvRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
5fvRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Sharma also said that when the BRIC countries are experiencing growing pains, and need a slight back seat, its golden light, may give smaller emerging markets such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, let me see these stars of the future ability to get rid of European debt magic curse, as the power of the next round of growth.
5fvRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

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