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菲律宾船只可能撤离黄岩岛 中国有机会展开行动(图)

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Philippine vessels may be evacuated Huangyan Island have the opportunity to action

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 Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

 Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

资料图:黄岩岛Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
据《菲律宾星报》5月29日消息,一名菲律宾高级安全官员28日表示,随着台风季节的到来,在缺乏比中国更大船只的情况下,菲律宾存在失去对黄岩岛“控制”的危险。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

“这是我们目前面临的最大挑战。我们不仅要面对中国比我们更具优势的海事船只,而且还面对未来数月自然气候的变化。”这位要求匿名的安全官员说。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

《菲律宾星报》称,中菲黄岩岛事件后,中国在该地区部署了数十艘船只“对抗”两艘来自菲律宾海湾警卫队(PCG)及渔业部门的船只。这名官员认为,在即将到来的台风季,这两艘菲律宾船只将被迫撤离该海域,到内陆地区寻求躲避。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

“我们不想黄岩岛发生像美济礁这样的事情。”这名官员说,并称他们正在考虑采取一些措施,保持在该地区的全年 “存在”。《菲律宾星报》解释说,由于无人监管,中国于1994年“占领” 了距离巴拉望岛87海里的美济礁,并修建了被称为渔民避难所的建筑物。随后中国将该岛礁变为配备有先进通讯设备、防卫森严的军事建筑体。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

“如果我们撤离黄岩岛,这也将是会发生在该地区的事情。”这名官员说。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

报道引述这名官员的话说,尽管中国政府船只及渔船具有优势,但菲律宾海岸警卫队人员仍继续在该地区进行海事巡逻。PCG人员一直监视着该地区内的所有活动,其中最主要任务是监视中国在该地区的活动。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

“我们的PCG人员早晨和下午在环礁湖内巡逻,记录所有活动以及中国在该地区的活动。”他说。但这名官员同时表示,一旦台风季来临,这些巡逻船也将不得不寻求躲避。在缺乏菲律宾“实际存在”的情况下,中国将获得“巨大机会来从事他们计划做的事情”。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

自中菲黄岩岛事件以来,菲律宾一直小动作不断,针对菲方一些高层人士误导舆论、声称菲对黄岩岛拥有主权的言论,中国外交部多次发出外交抗议,强调黄岩岛是中国的固有领土,并敦促菲方尊重中方的领土主权,早日恢复黄岩岛海域的和平安宁状况,为维护南海和平稳定和中菲关系大局做出努力。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

中国不会轻言南海开战Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
据菲律宾《国家问询者报》报道,5月28日日本海上自卫队3艘训练舰抵达菲律宾进行访问。而在早前,日本曾高调宣布将在年底前向菲律宾提供12艘全新的巡逻船。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

日本这些举动的目的是什么?难道还嫌南海局势不够紧张?在日本加强与菲律宾军事关系的同时,日本前防卫大臣小池百合子在美国国际评论网大放厥词,称是中国不断扩大的“核心利益”令南海和东海之争愈演愈烈。不过,小池百合子的观点遭到了美国康奈尔大学管理学院副教授阿伦·卡尔森的反对,阿伦·卡尔森认为,中国不会寻求在南海爆发战争冲突。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
日本唯恐南海不乱
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

菲律宾海军近日发表一份声明称,日本海上自卫队3艘训练舰——“鹿岛”号、“岛雪”号和“松雪”号,于5月28日起访问菲律宾,访问活动直到6月1日结束。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

根据资料显示,“鹿岛”号排水量4050吨,可载360名人员;而“岛雪”号和“松雪”号排水量均为3050吨,可载200名人员。所以,对于菲律宾海军而言这些舰艇已经算得上是大型舰艇,加上前不久日本表态支援菲律宾海军12艘巡逻艇,《欧亚评论》的文章称,在中菲因黄岩岛问题还处在危机状态时,东京此举显然只会“添乱”,再加上菲律宾刚刚宣布规模庞大的军事现代化计划,让马尼拉更有底气在未来对中国发出挑战。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

但日本人不认为自己的行为有什么不妥,而是把“扰乱亚洲和平”的帽子扣在中国的脑袋上。因为日本清楚,利用南海之争来消耗中国的“体力”和精力,或者让周边国家对中国“敬而远之”,都对今后日本夺取更多的东海利益十分有益。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

日本自民党前防卫大臣小池百合子近日在国际评论网撰文称,目前中国与菲律宾的黄岩岛之争和与日本的钓鱼岛之争愈演愈烈,事实上,中国的领土主张越来越强硬,以至于许多亚洲国家弄不清如何才能满足中国捍卫其“核心利益”的愿望。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

小池百合子宣称,正是因为中国将越来越多的问题列入“核心利益”,亚洲其他国家开始陷入担忧,因为他们认为这背后是中国的领土欲望。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

按照惯例,“核心利益”一词涉及的是国家主权和领土完整,中国在这方面绝不会让步。到目前为止,正式被中国列入“核心利益”的包括台湾、西藏和新疆。小池百合子称,如今,中国正意欲把核心利益一词用于与日本的钓鱼岛之争,甚至将它用于对南海的主张。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

小池百合子在文章中叫嚣,最近中国海军在南海的活动越来越活跃,特别是在钓鱼岛和黄岩岛海域。中国的军费节节攀升,军队的神秘性与日俱增,其海军所表现出来的魄力已经对其他南海邻国敲响警钟。中国不断扩大的“核心利益”将是东亚乃至东南亚不稳定之源,这种不稳定极有可能引发军事冲突。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

中国尽量避免冲突升级Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

虽然小池百合子的文章言辞激烈,似乎有为菲律宾“摇旗呐喊”的意思,但是事实并非如此。美国康奈尔大学管理学院副教授阿伦·卡尔森在《外交家》杂志网站撰文称,如果说有一个国家最不愿意看到南海爆发战火,那么这就是中国,因为处在“战略机遇期”的中国不会轻言“开战”,战争意味着中国的经济发展将遭受严重影响。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

在过去几个星期里,中国在南海黄岩岛问题上与菲律宾爆发了严重对峙,而与以往不同,这一次北京摆出了强硬姿态,引发亚洲地区乃至全球的密切关注。外界有理由关心这场海上领土争端将会导致中国与菲律宾的关系走到怎样的糟糕境地。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

然而,阿伦·卡尔森认为,尽管表面上中国一再警告菲律宾如果在黄岩岛问题上肆意挑衅,北京将采取包括军事在内的所有手段,但实际上几乎没有证据显示北京正积极寻求以“战争”来结束黄岩岛冲突。相反,即使是在南海这片自然资源极为丰富的海域,人们也有理由保持一种乐观态度。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

美国《华盛顿邮报》的文章称,很明显,北京已经尽力避免在这场“战役”中对马尼拉采取更为生硬、富有刺激性的手段。因为中国的意图是不挑起军事冲突,而是对菲律宾施压,迫使马尼拉在关于南海主权争议问题上坐下来谈判。为了表明自己的坚决态度,北京已经宣布完全不打算放弃自己在南海地区的主权主张。中国也不太可能这么做。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

与此同时,中国与菲律宾在南海海域爆发直接军事冲突(规模较小)已经是近20年前的事情。此外,在前几年南海局势相对平稳的时期,中国与东盟国家于2002年签订了《南海各方行动宣言》,这份“宣言”使中国和其他协约国有义务只通过和平手段来解决争议。我们可以发现,中国的行为虽然比以往更富有自信,但北京在南海地区采取的方式和方法的总体方向是合作的,而不是走向战争冲突。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

阿伦·卡尔森称,虽然一些观察家认为,2002年达成的《南海各方行动宣言》仅仅是一些空话而已,但不得不承认,中国从来没有直接违反过《南海各方行动宣言》的任何条款,这并不意味着北京永远不会这么做,或者南海一切安好。相反,这只是表明在现有的地区环境下,偏向于稳定的因素大过产生冲突的可能性,这一点是大多数对中国持批评态度的观察家必须承认的。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
南海爆发战争对菲律宾更有利
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

尽管最近在亚洲地区“喊打喊杀”声被放大了,但是很难找到“武装冲突即将爆发”的迹象。《欧亚评论》的文章认为,因为只有当中国领导层觉得自己已经遭到公开的直接的挑衅,北京才有可能采取更富攻击性的动作。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

外界如今可以发现,促使北京在南海地区倾向于“选择战争”的各种因素正在变得黯淡,主战派也越来越缓和。例如,中国媒体对菲律宾的“舆论战”不再像几个星期前那么尖锐且言辞激烈。北京不再突出警告菲律宾自己的忍耐是有限度的,以及其他有关各方必须注意自己的立场。相反,中国媒体刊登了大量姿态鲜明的分析评论,警告在南海爆发一场战争更有利于菲律宾的利益而不是中国的利益。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

阿伦·卡尔森表示,更广泛地来看,两个新的因素将会进一步降低冲突扩大的可能性。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

首先,一些中国国内民众觉得,北京当前的南海政策不再有效,也不太可行。与这些人的观点相似,很多媒体已经开始呼吁主张从国家层面作出努力,将中国各个部门在南海的政策进行整合,得出统一、有效的政策。此外,一些知名的中国分析家一直认为,中国在南海地区作出富有挑衅性的动作,将有可能破坏中国在亚洲地区迎来的“战略机遇期”。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

其次,由于近两年来世界经济出现低迷,中东政局频生乱象,所以中国与周边一个主要国家爆发战争,只会恶化中国所面临的局势,这是中国领导层所不愿意看到的。Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

中菲在南海黄岩岛的对峙,已经达到了两国“外交危机”的最高限度。尽管近期内很难看到南海局势将恢复到以前“表面风平浪静”的状态,但爆发军事冲突的场景同样也非常遥远。According to the Philippine Star, May 29, a Philippine security officials said on the 28th with the arrival of the typhoon season in the absence than larger vessels, the Philippines, of losing control Huangyan Island dangerous.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
"This is the biggest challenge we face now, we not only have to face the Chinese more advantages than we have maritime vessels, but also the face of natural climate changes in the next few months." Who asked to remain anonymous security officials said.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
"The Philippine Star newspaper said the Huangyan Island, the Philippines, after the incident, deployed in the region, dozens of ships" against "two from the Philippines, the Gulf Guard (PCG) and the vessels of the fisheries sector. The official believes that the two vessels in the Philippines in the upcoming typhoon season will be forced to evacuate the area, seeking refuge into the interior region.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
"We do not want to Huangyan Island, such as Mischief Reef," the official said, adding that they are considering to take some measures to the full year remains in the region "exists". The Philippine Star explained that due to the lack of supervision in 1994 "occupation" of 87 nautical miles from Palawan Island, Mischief Reef, and the construction of the building known as the refuge of fishermen. Subsequently, the reefs into equipped with advanced communications equipment, the body of heavily guarded military buildings.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
"If we evacuate the Huangyan Island, which will also occur in the region of things." The official said.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
The report quoted the official as saying, despite the Chinese government ships and fishing vessels have an advantage, but the Philippine Coast Guard personnel continue to maritime patrols in the area. PCG staff has been monitoring all activities within the region, the most important task is to monitor Chinese activities in the region.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Our PCG officers to patrol the lagoon in the morning and afternoon to record all activities and the activities of the Chinese in the region. "He said. But the official also said that once the typhoon season, these patrol boats will have to seek to avoid. The lack of the Philippines, "the actual existence of" a huge opportunity to engage in what they plan to do ".Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Huangyan Island, the Philippines, since the Philippines has been little trick constantly, for the Philippine side to the top echelon of misleading public opinion, claiming that the remarks of the Philippines has sovereignty on the Huangyan Island, the Chinese Foreign Ministry has repeatedly issued a diplomatic protest, stressed that Huangyan Island is China's inherent territory, and urged the Philippine side to respect China's territorial sovereignty, as soon as possible to restore peace and tranquility of the waters of the Huangyan Island, efforts to safeguard peace and stability in the South China Sea and the overall situation of Sino-Philippine relations.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
China will not give the South China Sea warGf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
According to the Philippine National Inquirer newspaper reported May 28, three of Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force training ship arrived in the Philippines to visit. Earlier, Japan had a high profile to the Philippines before the end of the year announced that it will provide 12 new patrol craft.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
What is the purpose of these moves in Japan? Is it not enough for the situation in the South China Sea is not enough tension? Strengthen military relations with the Philippines, while in Japan, the former Japanese defense minister Yuriko Koike, International Review of the Network in the United States to talk nonsense, saying that China is expanding its "core interests" of the South China Sea and East China Sea dispute intensified. Yuriko Koike, the point of view, however, was opposed to the Cornell University School of Management Associate Professor Alan Carlson, Alan Carlson, China will not seek the outbreak of the war conflict in the South China Sea.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Japan lest the South China Sea into chaosGf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
The Philippine Navy has issued a statement saying that the three training ship of the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force - "Kashima", "Island Snow" and "loose snow", with effect from May 28 to visit the Philippines, visit until June the end of the 1st.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
According to statistics, "Kashima" a displacement of 4050 tons and can carry 360 people; "Island Snow" and "loose snow" displacement is 3050 tons and can carry 200 people. Therefore, for the Philippine Navy, these ships have been considered as large ships, plus shortly before the Japanese position support 12 of the Philippine Navy patrol boat, the "Eurasian Review article said that in the Philippines due to the Huangyan Island is still in crisis state, Tokyo is clearly only "chaos", the Philippines has just announced a large-scale military modernization program, Manila is more emboldened to challenge China in the future.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
But the Japanese do not think their behavior is what is wrong, but to disturb the peace in Asia, "the hat on the head of China. Japan clearly consumed by the South China Sea dispute to the "physical" and energy, or the neighboring countries of China "at arm's length", are very useful to capture more of the East China Sea interests for Japan's future.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Japanese Liberal Democratic Party former defense minister Yuriko Koike, wrote recently in the International Review of Network Huangyan Island in China and the Philippines dispute with Japan over the Diaoyu Islands dispute intensified, in fact, China's territorial claims more and more tough, so that many Asian countries figure out how to meet the Chinese to defend its core interests, "the desire.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Yuriko Koike, a claim that it is because more and more problems included in the "core interests" and the other Asian countries into a concern, because they believe that behind this is the desire of China's territory.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
By convention, the "core interests" involved in national sovereignty and territorial integrity, China will never give in this regard. So far, the official China's inclusion on the "core interests" including Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang. Today, China is intended to keep the core interests of the term used with Japan over the Diaoyu Islands dispute, it used to the idea of ​​the South China Sea, said Yuriko Koike.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Yuriko Koike, a clamor in the article, the recent activities of the Chinese Navy in the South China Sea are increasingly active, especially the waters of the Diaoyu Islands and Huangyan Island. China's military spending has been rising, increasing the mystique of the army, its navy has shown courage has sounded the alarm on the other the South China Sea neighbors. China's expanding "core interests" will be a source of instability in East Asia and Southeast Asia, this instability may lead to military conflict.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Chinese try to avoid the escalation of the conflictGf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Yuriko Koike, the article vehemence, it seems that for the Philippines to drum up support "means, but is not the case. Allen Carlson, Cornell University Associate Professor, School of Management, wrote in the "Diplomat" magazine's website, if one country most reluctant to see the South China Sea to the outbreak of war, then this is China, because in a "period of strategic opportunity" the Chinese will not give the "go to war, war means that China's economic development will be severely affected.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
In the past few weeks, China and the Philippines in the South China Sea Huangyan Island on the issue broke out in a serious confrontation with the past, this time assumed a tough stance, triggering the close attention of the Asian region and the world. The outside world has reason to care about this maritime territorial disputes will lead to relations between China and the Philippines to come to a bad situation.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Alan Carlson, however, on the surface China has repeatedly warned that the Philippines in the Huangyan Island wanton provocation, Beijing will take all means, including military, but in fact there is little evidence that Beijing is actively seeking a "war "to end the conflict in Huangyan Island. On the contrary, even in the South China Sea this extremely rich in natural resources, waters, people also have reason to maintain an optimistic attitude.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
United States, "Washington Post," the article said, obviously, Beijing has done its best to take a more blunt, stimulating means to avoid this "battle" of Manila. China's intention is not to provoke a military conflict, but the pressure of the Philippines, forcing Manila to sit down and negotiate on the dispute over sovereignty in the South China Sea. In order to show their firm attitude, Beijing has announced that it does not intend to give up their claim of sovereignty in the South China Sea region. China is unlikely to do so.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
At the same time, China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, the outbreak of a direct military conflict (smaller) is the thing of the past 20 years. In addition, the relatively stable period of the previous years the situation in the South China Sea, China and ASEAN countries signed in 2002 Parties in the South China Sea Declaration for Action, the Universal Declaration of China and other Allies obligation to resolve the dispute through peaceful means only. We can see that China's behavior more than ever, more confident, but the overall direction of Beijing in the South China Sea region taken by the ways and means of cooperation, rather than go to war conflict.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Alan Carlson said, although some observers believe that reached by the Parties in the South China Sea in 2002, the Declaration of Action is just some empty words, but have to admit that China has never in direct violation of the Parties in the South China Sea Declaration of Action of any terms , this does not mean that Beijing forever will not do, or the South China Sea everything is OK. On the contrary, it only indicates that the existing regional environment in favor of a stable factor greater than the possibility of conflicts, this is the most critical observers must admit.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
The outbreak of war in the South China Sea is more favorable to the PhilippinesGf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Despite the recent Asia shouting Hansha the sound is magnified, but it's difficult to find signs of "armed conflict about to erupt". Eurasian Review articles that, because only when the Chinese leadership feels that he has been open and direct provocation, Beijing will it be possible to take more aggressive action.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
The outside world can now find a variety of factors prompted tend to choose war in the South China Sea is becoming bleak, war party more and more ease. For example, the Chinese media in the Philippines "media war" is no longer like a few weeks ago so sharp and strong words. Beijing is no longer prominent warning Philippines patience is limited, and other interested parties must pay attention to their position. Instead, the Chinese media published a profile analysis of comments, and warned the outbreak of war in the South China Sea is more conducive to the interests of the Philippines rather than in China's interests.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Alan Carlson said, the wider point of view, the two new factors will further reduce the possibility of a wider conflict.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
First, some Chinese people at home feel that the current South China Sea policy is no longer valid, it is not feasible. With the view of these people, a lot of media have begun to appeal to advocates from the national level efforts to integrate various departments of the Chinese in the South China Sea policy, and to draw a unified and effective policy. In addition, some well-known Chinese analysts have always thought that in the South China Sea to make provocative moves, it will be possible to undermine the period of strategic opportunity "ushered in by the Chinese in the Asian region.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Secondly, since the past two years in a depressed world economy, the political situation in the Middle East to the frequent occurrence of chaos, China and its neighboring a major national outbreak of war, will only worsen the situation faced by China, the Chinese leadership does not want to see.Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Philippine Huangyan Island, the South China Sea confrontation has reached the maximum limit of the two countries' diplomatic crisis ". Despite the near future, it is difficult to see "the surface calm" in the situation in the South China Sea will be restored to its previous state, but the scene of military conflict is also very far away.
Gf5Rainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

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