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欧阳五﹕中国「维稳」外交转舵

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Ouyang five: "the maintenance of stability," Foreign steering

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 NABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

中国和菲律宾在黄岩岛海域的冲突持续逾五周后出现转圜之机。
 
总的来看,迄今为止,中国处理黄岩岛争端的手段「不过不失」。政府一方面坚持战略克制,一方面采取有限行动,刚柔并济,掌握主动,产生了一定的实际效果。
 
中国传统的睦邻政策,一直偏重「维稳」,相对淡化「维权」。在黄岩岛之前历次南海争端中,中国虽然坚持「主权在我」的原则,但对相关国家加强对争议岛屿的实际控制与侵占活动,多止于「抗议」,即所谓「动口不动手」。
 
从这次对黄岩岛危机的处理中,似乎可以看到中国外交政策思路的某种调整。开始对「外交优先」和「维稳优先」进行有意识的区分,是其中比较明显的一点。
 
通过外交途径解决争端的大方向虽然没变,但已不是一味注重区域「维稳」,而是通过提升自己捍卫和平主张及主权利益的能力,在该出手时出手,以相对积极的「维权」手段来实现「维稳」。
 
有看法说,中国将要或者已经转向富有侵略性的外交策略,其实不然。目前中国对自身的认识是处于关键性的「战略发展机遇期」,希望大环境和平稳定,全副精力发展经济。这也是黄岩岛争端中,中国前期坚持释放善意和出尽和平外交牌的原因。
 
不过频繁的摩擦也让中国意识到,「战略机遇期」不能一厢情愿。不管是要避免周边国家「小动作」的骚扰,还是要防范大国强势介入可能导致的「新冷战」乃至军事冲突,中国均不可一味被动。优先出牌权既不在自己手里,节节忍让换到的可能就是别人的「机遇期」。
 
中国最大的挑战是在国内
 
黄岩岛事件也说明,中国外交政策和主张需要一些「留白」部分,给自己争取更多的腾挪空间。
 
底牌亮光,未必能换得信任。就像海外的流行观点是把「韬光养晦」误读为「隐藏野心、收起爪子」。如果「尊重事实,改换思维」十分容易,那么美国国防部最近发表的报告中也就不会再一次散布「中国军事威胁论」了。
 
另一方面,从中国自身发展来说,本就处于「将强未强」的阶段,外交继续坚持原则,同时应时而变,也是必由之路。
 
倒是从这个方面说,中国最大的挑战不在黄岩岛、不在南海,而是在国内。国内的改革必须要推进,否则「维稳」也是一个难题。
 
由此看外交确实是「内政的延伸」,二者的相通之处就在于:没有「维权」就没有「维稳」;「静态维稳」并不存在,只有在发展中保持平衡,才是「维稳」。明報專訊

Conflict between China and the Philippines in the Huangyan Island waters continued more than five weeks after changed again the machine.NABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Overall, so far, China's Huangyan Island dispute means "too bad". While the Government adhere to the strategic restraint, to take limited action on the one hand, hard and soft economy, seize the initiative to produce actual results.NABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Chinese traditional good-neighborly policy has been biased towards the maintenance of stability ", relative to dilute the" rights ". In the previous South China Sea dispute before the Huangyan Island, although the Chinese insist on the principle of "sovereignty", but the relevant countries to strengthen actual control and encroachment activities on the disputed islands, and more limited to "protest", namely the so-called "moving mouth, hands," .NABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
From this handling of the Huangyan Island crisis, it seems that you can see some kind of adjustment of China's foreign policy ideas. "Diplomatic priority" and "stability maintenance priority conscious distinction is one of the more obvious point.NABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Through diplomatic channels to solve the general direction of the dispute has not changed, but not blindly focus on regional stability maintenance ", but by enhancing their ability to defend the peace advocates and sovereign interests, shot in the hand, to the relatively positive" rights " means to achieve "stability maintenance.NABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
There are views that will be or has been turned to aggressive diplomatic strategy, it is not true. Understand ourselves in a key strategic development opportunity, hope that the environment of peace and stability, heavily on economic development. This is also the Huangyan Island dispute, China pre-adhere to the goodwill and the best brand of peaceful diplomatic reasons.NABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Frequent friction realized that the "period of strategic opportunity" is not wishful thinking. Whether it is to avoid the neighboring countries, petty harassment or anti the Fan Daguo strong intervention may lead to the "new Cold War" and even military conflict, and China are not waiting passively. Priority to license the right is neither in their own hands, losing patience may change to someone else's opportunity.NABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
The biggest challenge is in the countryNABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Huangyan Island incident also shows that China's foreign policy and advocated the need for some "blank" section, to strive for more maneuvers.NABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
The bottom line of light may not be able to exchange trust. Like the popular view of the overseas "Low" misread as "hidden ambitions, put away the claws." "Respect the fact that change of thinking is very easy for the recently released report by the U.S. Department of Defense will not once again spread the" China military threat theory ".NABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
On the other hand, from China's own development, this is "not strong" phase, continue to adhere to the principles of diplomacy, at the same time should be changed from time to time, is also the only way.NABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Touches this respect, China's biggest challenge is not the Huangyan Island, the South China Sea, but in the country. Domestic reform must be to promote, or "holding stability is also a problem.NABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
From that perspective diplomacy is indeed an extension of the "internal affairs, the two things in common is that: there is no" rights "no" holding stability; "static stability maintenance" does not exist, only to maintain a balance in development, is maintenance of stability. "
NABRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

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