从毛泽东董建华 到梁振英 ——富有中国革命特色的香港管治

【明报专讯】由被认为有浓厚左派背景的梁振英当选特首后，很多人均忧虑中央及它在香港的代表，即西环的中联办对香港管治的干预已愈来愈深和明目张胆，使到「一国两制，港人治港」，这个中央对港人许下的承诺，荡然无存。2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

在这个被「一国两制」可能快将成为「一国一制」的阴霾笼罩的一刻，无论从实际的政治分析或学术研究角度出发，均有急切必要去思考一些重要问题，就是在「一国两制」不断被削弱下，香港的管治会变成怎样？中央会怎样管治香港？2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

从邓小平当初构思「一国两制」这个概念时的想法出发，「一国两制」的作用就恍如一道防波堤，安全地分隔开中国内地和香港两套截然不同的制度，使到在「河水不犯井水」的情况下，香港可以不需要受内地干预而继续在九七后积极地发挥自己的长处和优势。因此，在「一国两制」再不能发挥其应有作用下，结果就有如洪水决堤，香港这个小井会被内地的巨流所淹没和同质化。香港的管治模式，将会和国内的一套愈来愈相似。2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

《毛泽东的无形的手》2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

因此，要了解香港，便要先了解中国，而在了解当代中国的管治模式上，在中国研究的学术界里，近年有了突破的进展，当中有代表性的著作，包括由Heilmann和Perry合编及着有、哈佛大学2011年出版，名为《毛泽东的无形的手：中国适应性管治的政治基础》一书〔1〕。2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

在Heilmann和Perry两位已从事中国研究多年的资深学者眼中，中国的个案是社会科学中的黑天鹅（black swan），即此一新鲜、独特、前所未见而又难以解释的现象。中国发展吊诡的地方，是若把它当作社会主义或共产国家看待，它却没有和苏联及东欧前共产国家般倒台或瓦解，另一方面，若把它当作一般西方市场经济和资本主义国家作研究，它又是一个不能被现有理论合理解释的例外和特殊个案，因为在经济快速增长的同时，我们看不见在民主、自由、人权、法治，以至是民间社会的发展上，中国有同步和相应的改善。2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

游击队的政策风格2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

要解答中国发展的吊诡和矛盾之谜，书中最核心及最有突破性的论点是，影响中国管治最深远的，并非其实体的政治制度，或是社会主义或市场经济等简单、外来和典型的传统意识形态，而是源自毛泽东在革命期间所建立的一套思想和管治理论。其目的在于在一个瞬息万变的外在环境下，仍能不断地自我更生，有效地打击敌人，从而取得最后胜利，两位作者因而称之为游击队的政策风格（guerilla policy style）。2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

作者选取《毛泽东的无形的手》这一个书名，是正正要清楚指出，虽然中国的革命已结束多时，共产党亦早已成功得到权力及建国多年，而毛泽东本人亦已离世30多年，但原来源自他的政治及革命思想，仍然像一对无形的手，时刻和重大地影响着中国的管治模式和各方面的重要发展。2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

推而广之，在「一国两制」不再有效运作下，毛泽东革命思想的无形之手将会伸延至香港。事实上，自回归以来，这方面的发展已有一定的迹象。即使在董建华年代是「商人治港」，但左派已在香港管治上有相当大影响力。在此亦不得不提及2002年董建华完成第一个任期后，刘兆佳便编写了《董建华的首个任期》一书〔2〕！当中一众学者所分析和观察到的管治问题和现象，均和Heilmann和Perry所提出的毛泽东的无形之手的政策风格，有很多相似的地方。相比董建华，梁振英的红色背景更浓厚，因此，了解毛泽东的无形之手，对了解梁振英的管治思维和模式，应该有相当大的预言能力。毛泽东、董建华和梁振英，在管治理念上，可以是一脉相承。2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

四大方面2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

综合来说，根据Heilmann和Perry的分析，游击队的政策风格可以分成四大方面：2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

•首先，在政治与行政层面上，是要强调制度的可塑性（plasticity），轻视官僚的制度、程序和法规，不信任公务员等规范性的制度。官僚只是沦为执行的工具，甚至在某些情况下，可以被视作改革的阻力，需要发动群众和舆论来把它打击和整治。这一原则的好处是政治领袖可以在不被制衡下，尽快推行自己的改革目标，但坏处自然是缺乏政治问责和制衡，造成贪污滥权。值得注意的是，无论是董建华或是梁振英，均大力支持问责制，削弱公务员对自己的政策阻力，梁在陈冉的招聘上亦不尊重既有制度，而他亦曾指出公务员「习非成是」。以上的一切是毛泽东的无形的手，还是只是一场巧合？2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

•在法律层面上，毛泽东的无形的手自然视法律为工具和手段，而不认同西方法治的观念。2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

•在社会层面上，一方面喜爱走入群众，听取意见，但另一方面却刻意制造社会分化和矛盾，甚至不时拉一派来打另一派，目的不外乎在了解群众、建立统治合法性的同时，不容许公民社会的发展，使到在社会上不会有强大动员能力和足以挑战自己管治的组织出现。2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

•最后，在经济层面上，是爱以实验和试点方式推行政策，及定立数字化的「硬目标」，八万五的建屋目标及双非孕妇的零配额均可能是适用例子。2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

有些意见可能认为，香港的管治和中国变得愈来愈相似，未必是坏事，因为君不见中国已变得愈来愈强大，但这其实是一个错误和十分危险的说法。首先，中国和香港的背景和情况完全不同，应用于中国并不等于适用于香港。前者仍是一个发展中国家，而香港已是成熟的后工业化经济，有活跃的公民社会、很强的法治和对民主的信念。强行在香港推行毛泽东的无形的手，必定会破坏香港不少的优势和价值。2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

要使香港成功2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

并非要中国和香港相同2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

而且，正如我们在学习投资的时候经常会听到的一句忠告，「过往的表现未必能够反映将来的表现」，《毛泽东的无形的手》的两位编者兼作者在书中再三强调，在中国内部不稳定因素不断增加的情况下，所谓的游击队政策风格是否可以再继续有效推动中国发展，是一个疑问。不少分析均相信，万一中国经济表现放缓，便会对现有的管治模式构成重大压力，甚至推至崩溃边缘。而在全球经济不断放慢的不景气下，这一天可能距离现在已不太远了！2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

因此，要使香港继续成功，要诀并非要中国和香港变得相同，而是了解两者的不同。2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
 2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

[Ming Pao] by Leung Chun-ying was elected Chief Executive is considered a strong leftist background, Many people worried about the central and its representative in Hong Kong, the Liaison Office of the West Central intervention on the governance of Hong Kong has become more and more deep, and outright so that the "One Country, Two Systems, Hong Kong people ruling Hong Kong", and this central commitment to the people of Hong Kong promised gone.2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
May be fast in this one country, two systems "will become" one country, one system "clouded moment, whether starting from the actual political or academic research point of view, are urgently necessary to think about some important issues, that is constantly in the" One Country, Two Systems " been weakened under the governance of Hong Kong will become? Central will be how to govern Hong Kong?2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Had conceived the idea of ​​the concept of "one country, two systems" starting from Deng Xiaoping, the role of "one country, two systems" seems like a breakwater, safely separated from the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong two different systems, so that in the "minding our own business" The case does not require intervention by the mainland to continue after 1997 actively play to their strengths and advantages. Therefore, under the "one country, two systems" can no longer play its due role, the result is just like a flood, Hong Kong, SLIM will be submerged by the Mainland Juliu and homogenization. Mode of governance in Hong Kong, will be the country a more and more similar.2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
"Mao's invisible hand."2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Therefore, to understand Hong Kong, we must first understand China, on the understanding of contemporary China's mode of governance, the academic world of the Chinese research breakthrough progress in recent years, representative works, including by Heilmann and Perry eds and Harvard University published in 2011, called "the invisible hand of Mao Zedong: adaptive governance, the political basis of a book [1].2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Heilmann and Perry, two engaged in a senior scholar in the eyes of the Chinese for many years, the Chinese case is the black swan in the social sciences (black swan), this fresh, unique, unprecedented and unexplained phenomena. Paradox, if it as a socialist or communist country look, it did not like the fall of former communist countries and the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe or the collapse of the other hand, if it as the general Western market economies and capitalism national research, it is the exceptions and special cases that can not be reasonably explained by existing theory, while rapid economic growth, we can not see democracy, freedom, human rights, rule of law, as well as the development of civil society, China synchronization and the corresponding improvement.2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
The guerrillas policy style2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
To answer the mystery of paradoxes and contradictions of China's development, the book is the most central and most breakthrough point, the Chinese rule the most far-reaching, not in fact the simple body of the political system, or a socialist or market economy, foreign and typical of the traditional ideology, but from a set of ideas and governance theory established by Mao Zedong during the revolution. The aim is a rapidly changing external environment, and still continue to self-reliance, to effectively combat the enemy, to win the final victory, the two authors has been termed the guerrillas policy styles (guerilla policy style).2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
The author selected a title of "Mao's invisible hand, are about to clearly point out that although the Chinese revolution has been a long time, the end of the Communist Party, have already successfully obtained power and the founding years of Mao Zedong I have also passed away 30 years, but the original derived from his political and revolutionary ideas are still like a pair of invisible hands, time and significant impact on China's mode of governance and development.2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
By extension, the "one country, two systems" is no longer valid, the invisible hand of Mao Zedong's revolutionary ideas will be extended to Hong Kong. In fact, since the reunification, the developments in this area have been some signs. Tung Chee-hwa's "businessmen ruling Hong Kong", but left-wing has considerable influence on the governance of Hong Kong. Also goes to have to refer to Mr Tung Chee Hwa, to complete his first term in 2002, Lau Siu-kai will write a book [2], "Mr Tung's first term! Among all the scholars of the analysis and governance issues and phenomena observed in both policy styles and Heilmann and Perry proposed by Mao Zedong's invisible hand, there are many similarities. Compared to Tung Chee-hwa, the red background of Leung Chun-ying strong, so understanding the invisible hand of Mao Zedong, to understand the philosophy of governance and patterns of Leung Chun-ying, there should be considerable prophecy. Mao Zedong, Tung Chee-hwa and Leung Chun-ying, the concept of governance can be the same strain.2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Four major areas2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
In summary, based on the analysis of Heilmann and Perry, the guerrillas policy styles can be divided into four major areas:2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
• First, the political and administrative level, is to emphasize the plasticity of the system (plasticity), contempt of bureaucratic systems, procedures and regulations, do not trust civil servants and other normative system. The bureaucracy is only reduced to the implementation of the tools, and even in some cases, can be regarded as the resistance to reforms, the need to mobilize the masses and public opinion to combat and remediation. The benefits of this principle is that political leaders can not be checks and balances, as soon as possible to implement the objectives of the reform, but the downside is naturally the lack of political accountability and checks and balances, resulting in corruption and abuse of power. It is noteworthy that, regardless of the Tung Leung Chun-ying, a strong proponent of accountability, and weaken the resistance of the civil servants of their own policies, Liang Chen Ran recruitment nor respect for the existing system, and he also pointed out that civil servants "Xi non as is ". Above all Mao's invisible hand, or just a coincidence?2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
On the legal level, the invisible hand of Mao Zedong's natural, as the legal tools and instruments, rather than agree with the Western concept of the rule of law.2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
• At the social level, on the one hand, favorite into the masses, listen to their views, but on the other hand, deliberately created social divisions and contradictions, and even from time to time to pull the school to fight the other faction, the purpose of nothing more than to understand the people, to establish the legitimacy At the same time, should not be the Xugong Min society's development, so that the community does not have a strong ability to mobilize and to challenge the governance organization.2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
• Finally, at the economic level, love to experiment and pilot implementation of policies and setting of the digital "hard target" zero quota of 85 000 housing objectives and non-pregnant women may be applicable example.2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Some comments may think that the governance of Hong Kong and China become more and more similar, not necessarily a bad thing, Do not you see that China has become more and more powerful, but in fact is a mistake and a very dangerous statement. First of all, the completely different context and situation in China and Hong Kong, used in China does not mean that applies to Hong Kong. The former is still a developing country, while Hong Kong is a mature post-industrial economy, a vibrant civil society, a strong rule of law and faith in democracy. Invisible hand of Mao Zedong's force in Hong Kong will certainly destroy Hong Kong's many advantages and value.2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
To make Hong Kong's success2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Is not to China and Hong Kong the same2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
And, as an advice we often hear when learning investment, "past performance may not be able to reflect the future performance", editor and author of "Mao Zedong's invisible hand," two in the book repeatedly stressed in China case of increasing the internal factors of instability, the so-called guerrilla policy styles can then continue to effectively promote China's development is a doubt. Many analysts believe that, if the slowdown in economic performance in China, and will exert great pressure on the existing mode of governance, and even pushed to the brink of collapse. Downturn in the global economy continues to slow down, which may one day from now, not too far away!2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
To continue to be successful, tips are not meant to become the same in China and Hong Kong, but to understand the differences between the two.2kiRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语