英国周三刊登文章,认为中国领导人了解如何保持经济的强势增长,但是人口老化问题将会是未来的艰巨难题。
首席经济评论员安纳托尔·科勒斯基刚刚从中国回来,他说,与很多刚从中国回来的人一样,他也很想大声嚷嚷说:“我看到希望和未来了,他们的办法很管用。”
文章说, “从某种角度来说,中国已经是世界上最重要的经济体。虽然中国的经济总值未来十年都不会赶超美国,但是中国已经在世界经济活动中占了更大的增长份额。”
“因此,寻求新市场的商业活动,寻找新工作的毕业生们,都将发现中国比其他任何地方更有机会。”
科勒斯基预测:“中国对全球经济的主导未来还将继续,而且分量将更重。”
不过,文章着重谈到了中国未来必须克服的巨大经济、政治和社会障碍。
首先,中国尽管有数不清的摩天大楼、高速公路、从没有间断的能源供应、崭新的地铁和高速火车,但中国仍然是一个穷国。国内生产总值GDP数额巨大,但是人均却低于俄罗斯、巴西、墨西哥。
“即使中国超过美国成为世界第一经济强国,中国人的平均收入也只有美国人的大约四分之一。”
“中国要突破贫困走向真正富裕,必须将经济增长从数量转向质量,转向环境的可持续发展,重视能源和空气,更要重视水资源;转向劳动力的创造性;转向创新、转向投资效率。”
文章认为,以为经济发展可以逐步把专制变成民主的想法证明是错的。
“把中国和印度相比较,民主似乎是经济发展的不利因素。举例来说,自1990年以来,中国修建了30000英里的高速公路,而印度只修了300英里。
虽然这两个国家的法律系统可能都存在不可预期之处,但至少中国人更快就做出了决定,印度固守顺其自然的作风,使法律案件能持续数年甚至数十年。”
文章认为,再过十年,当中国面对独生子女政策造成的人口老化这一最可怕的问题时,政治与经济的冲突将更加严重。
人口老化将会是中国最大的问题。
科勒斯基预测:“中国对全球经济的主导未来还将继续,而且分量将更重。”
England published a story Wednesday that Chinese leaders understand how to maintain strong economic growth, but the problem of aging population will be the daunting challenges of the future.
Anna Thor Kohler Chomsky, chief economics commentator, has just returned from China, he said, with a lot of people who just returned from China, he also wanted to shout: "I see the hope and future, and their The approach is very useful. "
The article says, "In some ways, China is already the world's most important economies. Although China's economic value over the next decade will not overtake the United States, but China has the world's economic activity accounted for a greater growth in share. "
"As a result, commercial activities to seek new markets, looking for new graduates who will find more opportunities than any other place."
Kohler Sharansky Forecast: China leading the global economy will continue, and heavier components.
However, the article highlighted the enormous economic, political and social obstacles to China's future must be overcome.
First, despite the countless skyscrapers, highways, without interruption of energy supply, the new subway and high-speed train, but China is still a poor country. Huge amount of domestic production (GDP) per capita was lower than Russia, Brazil, Mexico.
"Even if China overtook the United States as the world's economic powers, the Chinese people's average income is only about a quarter of Americans."
To break the poverty toward real prosperity, economic growth from quantity to quality, turned to environmental sustainability, focus on energy and air, should pay more attention to water resources; turned to the creativity of the workforce; to innovation, turned to the efficiency of investment. "
The article says that economic development can be gradually put autocracy into a democracy of ideas proved to be wrong.
"China and India compared, democracy appears to be unfavorable factors for economic development. For example, since 1990, China built 30,000 miles of expressways, while India only to repair the 300 miles.
Although these two countries the legal system may exist unexpected place, but at least faster to make a decision, India stick to go with the flow of style, so that legal cases can last for years or even decades. "
The article, a few decades, when China is facing an aging population the most terrible problems caused by the one-child policy, political and economic conflict will be more serious.
Population aging will be the biggest problem in China.
Kohler Sharansky Forecast: China leading the global economy will continue, and heavier components.