世界未来十年进入"G0时代" 应高度关注这6大忧思

未来世界将进入“G0时代”，即没有超强大国的“无极化时代”。根据政治铁律“再坏的政府也比无政府好”，当前的国际社会虽无政府但有秩序的，需要高成本来维护。而进入“G0状态”后，国际社会可能进入弱肉强食的霍布斯时代，国际社会未来的风险加大。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
当前世界情势纷繁芜杂。主要传统发达经济体遭受冲击，日子艰难。欧洲的主要债务愈演愈烈，已经蔓延到欧盟核心国家，触及该地区最稳固国家的经济发展。美国的“占领华尔街”虽然直指金融体系，表达普通民众对金融寡头的不满，更反映出美国社会贫富分化日益严重、不平等加剧的现实。为提振国内就业，促进经济增长的无力，美国把注意力转向经济活力最为活跃的亚太地区，高调宣称“美国的太平洋世纪”。美国的“重返亚洲”不仅搅乱了东亚利益格局、提升了东亚安全议题的热度，更凸显了大西洋轴心瓦解以及太平洋世纪的浮现。而始于2011年初的阿拉伯之春的余波荡漾，继本·阿里逃跑，穆巴拉克被抓，卡扎菲被杀之后，俄罗斯和美国的航空母舰分别逼近叙利亚，中东战事似乎一触即发。全球陷入乱局，而且动荡的幅度、广度、深度都超过以往。未来世界趋势如何？如何把握世界的走向？是否会出现“黑天鹅事件”？有六大趋势值得我们关注。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
一、世界经济进入衰退的长周期NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
世界经济进入比较长期的萧条期，未来十至十五年，世界正处于技术创新决定的经济长周期的下行阶段。意味着未来十年经济非常困难，未来发展的障碍会多一点，速度会慢一点，投资会少一点，就业会少一点，政治矛盾会多一些。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
一般来讲，经济发展过程中存在着繁荣与萧条交替的周期性。周期性波动分为消费决定的短周期，制造业决定的中周期，以及科技创新决定的长周期，即“康德拉季耶夫长波理论”，由国际知名经济学家康德拉季耶夫在1926年提出，他认为长周期是由创新或者说主要固定资本产品的更新换代开启的50至60年的经济周期。18世纪末期以后，世界经历了三个长周期，分别为1789-1849年以“产业革命”为标志的第一个长周期；1849-1896年以“蒸汽机和钢铁”为代表的第二个长周期；1896年以电气时代来临到1920年进入下降期的第三个长周期。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
按照长波理论，从20世纪80年代起，以“计算机、互联网”为标志的信息产业革命开启了一个新的经济长周期，在IT革命的带领下，不仅美国在1991年走出衰退以后，保持了长达十多年的持续增长，而世界其他主要经济体也保持了较好的增长态势，分享全球化的成果。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
经历了长达二十多年的长波上行阶段，进入新世纪后，世界经济出现三个拐点：其一是纳斯达克股票市场暴跌，标志着以因特网为主导的高科技产业的高频率原创活动已经趋于枯竭，成本竞争开始了，而这必导致高科技产业盈利能力的下降，于是大量的资本开始撤出纳斯达克股票市场；其二是世界FDI占全球GDP的比重也在2000年开始趋于下降；其三是世界固定资产形成占全球GDP的比重也开始大幅下降。这些都标志着康德拉基耶夫长周期的下降阶段的到来。随着2008年美国次贷危机的爆发，国际石油与粮食价格飙升，金融市场动荡，世界经济面临进一步衰退的风险。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
二、全球化进程减缓NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
全球化进入一个相对停滞期，全球合作的难度增大。全球化起源于1492年哥伦布地理大发现，此前的世界相互隔绝。随着资本主义兴起，追求财富驱动资本主义在全球范围内寻求资源，拓展市场，逐渐把各自封闭的区域联系到一起，全球化蔓延全球，不过全球化的发展时起时落。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
最新一轮的全球化高潮开始于上世纪70年代末80年代初，发端于美国的里根革命和中国的改革开放。1981年美国的里根政府成立，在国家实行自由市场经济，开始大幅减少国家对金融的管理，废除了很多法律规章，导致国际资本在全球范围的自由流动；而1978年中国改革开放，使得占世界五分之一的人口参与到全球市场竞争，加入到全球化的进程，使得全球化的规模进一步扩大，这些都助成了新一轮的全球化浪潮。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
全球化经过30年的凯歌高进，取得很大的成果。比如，金砖国家等新兴经济体加入到全球进程，相当于30亿多人加入到世界市场大舞台；生产要素的全球配置效率提高，推动世界经济出现了有史以来最大的增长；人们的生活水平得到提高，根据世界银行报告，2005年全世界贫困人口已从1981年的19亿降至14亿。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
不过全球化也是一柄双刃剑，从历史角度来看，它为很多人带来福利，但也带来了诸多的不平衡。诸如世界经济产生不平衡，一边是生产大国另一边是消费大国；一些发展中国家不仅面临着主权、经济安全、价值观的冲击，还被经济全球化“边缘化”，分享不到全球化的成果；工业化、城市化人口的骤然增加，加剧了资源紧张，环境破坏日益严重。之前我们看到全球化的成就，现在更应该关注其代价和后果。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
更严重的是全球化在发展中国家之间，以及发展中和发达国家之间造成心理上的隔阂。诸如发生“阿拉伯之春”的国家，由于没能抓住全球化的机遇，实现国家经济结构的升级，仍然依靠单一的旅游、运河和石油收入，又受到发达国家以全球通货膨胀为表现的危机转嫁，成为全球危机中最薄弱的环节，爆发了社会动乱，进而成为全球化的失败国家。另外，新兴工业化国家在全球化中受益最大，在贸易、投资等领域跟西方国家展开激烈竞争，导致西方的心理不平衡，对可能失去在新兴世界的经济和政治实力感到不安，开始普遍实行贸易保护。结果，发起者后悔，失败者反抗，反对全球化的情绪正在形成，而且声势日益壮大。原本凯歌行进的全球化进程可能会出现三种情况：倒退、停滞、变缓。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
不过我们可以持稍微乐观的态度，全球化不可能逆转或倒退。一方面，推动全球化的技术如同放出魔瓶的精灵。社交网络和互联网的普及使得不同地区人们的交流以前所未有的方式扩展，这一趋势任何国家的政府都难以阻拦。另外，政策层面上，全球多边治理平台不断扩展，如WTO、G20，APEC，东亚峰会等等，维持了全球经济、贸易秩序，为减少摩擦提供了协调沟通的舞台。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
但是在全球经济处于下行阶段，世界处于日益分化、分裂的情况下，全球化的发展必然受到影响，目前最可能出现全球化减缓或者停滞，导致世界经济体系各国“相互依存”的效用下降，各国或许更趋向于以邻为壑，对从合作中获利减少的预期，导致国际合作难度的加大。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
三、中等国家群体性崛起NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
一批中等强国群体性崛起，跃入世界舞台，国际博弈更加复杂。中等国家一般指实力介于大国和小国之间，综合国力发展良好，具备相当的物质基础或至少是某一领域里的大国，具有适度的国际权威和相对独立自主的外交战略，为国际社会所认可，并能够发挥积极的建设性作用和地区性影响力。国际上还没有对中等强国的确切定义，不过从现实来看，除了金砖国家的巴西、印度、南非外，还包括土耳其、越南、墨西哥、印度尼西亚、尼日利亚、阿根廷、沙特、埃及等国家。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
中等强国的群体性崛起虽然处在世界金融危机和西方实力相对衰落的大背景下，但他们凭借经济的高速发展以及良好的天然禀赋为参与国际博弈奠定了基础。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
以中等强国中最为耀眼的金砖国家为例，2011年《新兴经济体蓝皮书》指出，21世纪头十年，新兴经济体平均经济增长率超过6%，其中，印度超过7%、俄罗斯超过6%，金砖国家整体平均增长率超过8%，远高于发达国家2.6%的平均增长率及4.1%左右的全球平均增长率。南非近十年的年均增长率则在3%左右，多数年份高于发达国家平均水平。IMF最新报告称：新兴经济体经济增长将超过6%，而发达国家只有2%左右，未来几年复兴艰难。新兴经济体则将成为驱动全球经济增长的主要力量。“2008年金融危机后，西方传统大国损失惨重，无力独自维系全球市场体系的稳定，主动邀请新兴国家参与收拾残局，以求共同应对金融危机带来的损害和日益增多的全球性问题，进一步整合全球秩序。”中等强国的崛起不仅经济上成为传统大国拉拢的对象，政治上也成为大国博弈争夺的对象。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
在今后的国际竞争中，五大力量谁获得较多中等国家的支持，谁就会在大国博弈中占上风。因此，传统大国去取悦中等强国来增加竞争的筹码。新兴市场经济国家在世界经济和政治版图中地位实质性的提升，打破了过去30年间五大力量中心的国际格局，它们与现行国际俱乐部的关系决定着未来世界的稳定与否。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
四、全球性问题继续恶化NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
全球性问题一般指在世界范围普遍存在、关系到全人类根本利益、威胁人类生存与发展及未来命运的重大问题，诸如战争与和平问题、人口问题、资源紧张与环境恶化、贫富分化、气候变化等。自1972年全球性问题得到人们重视和研究以来，由于手段的缺失，全球治理陷于集体行动的困境，不仅老问题越演愈烈，新问题也不断涌现。随着此轮金融危机的爆发，债务问题在发达国家持续发酵，全球金融监管问题也跻身其中。传统安全问题的重要性和紧迫度逐渐被非传统安全问题所取代。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
虽然世界和平问题没有彻底解决，但是世界范围的热战打不起来，不过局部战争和冲突时有发生，不排除牵涉大国加入、导致冲突升级的可能。而2011年10月31日，菲律宾婴儿丹妮卡·卡马乔的诞生象征着世界人口突破70亿，人类将面临“可怕挑战”。根据联合国人口基金此前的数据，按照目前的趋势，世界人口大约于本世纪中期超过90亿，本世纪末将超过100亿。世界将如何负重前进？毫无疑问，世界人口的激增使得水资源缺乏、土地沙漠化、生物多样性丧失等一系列环境问题愈加恶化，资源比以前更加紧张。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
以水资源为例，去年12月，世界银行联合其他一些国际机构共同发表的一份关于水资源状况的报告指出，目前，已有约20亿人口生活在水资源紧张的地区，而到2030年全球将有1/3的人口分布在水资源高度紧张的地区。报告预计，在未来20年内，全球范围内对水资源的需求将增加40％，一些发展中国家的需求可能增加50％以上。或许今后由水危机引发的战争不再是预言。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
全球性问题也出现了新特点。此前，全球性问题的苦果往往由发展中国家独吞，目前全球性问题恶化的余波已经波及到发达国家自身。从阿拉伯之春到伦敦之夏再到华尔街之秋，反应出贫富分化已经成为全球最普遍最严重的问题，这个问题在发达国家隐藏更深。根据美国经济政策研究所的研究，2009年美国1%最富有家庭的资产是普通中产阶级家庭的225倍，创历史最高。据国际货币基金组织的《金融与发展》杂志最新公布的报告，在本轮经济衰退之前，美国最富有的1%人群享有整个社会财富的23.5%（上世纪七十年代时仅10%），2008年金融危机后，这一比例略有下降，但到2009年升至约40%。而80%社会中下阶层人群仅享有社会总财富的7%。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
五、各国的“弱领导”时代来临NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
全球各国领导力缺乏正成为一个全球性问题。一方面，全球化浪潮下大众政治蓬勃兴起，另一方面，新技术的运用改变了政治行为的形态。从现象上看，欧美等发达国家的领导人为了赢得选票而全力迎合选民；一些中等国家的政治强人面临集体下课的窘境，国内派系纷争，较长时间内将处于权力真空的状态。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
在阿拉伯之春中，遭遇高通胀和高失业打击的群众无法忍受，就一哄而起，走上街头，他们本身没有纲领，也没有组织。而“Facebook”和“Twitter”新型信息工具在运动中的广泛使用，实现了信息的大量即时传播，这就使以往需要旷日持久才能实现的政治动员和社会组织得以在瞬间完成，从而就打破了信息自上而下传播的权力等级，使每个人都拥有了一个可以从自己视角传播所见所闻、表达个人政治述求的能力。因此，新技术运用进一步推动了大众政治的兴起，政府对民众的控制力式微。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
在美国，总统奥巴马上任之初，就放弃了小布什总统任内由于“反恐战争”需要而无限扩大的总统权力，他定下从伊拉克撤军的时间表，放弃单边主义，重视与盟国的合作，同伊斯兰世界开始接触等等。由于金融危机的打击，奥巴马政府对提振经济和扩大就业束手无策，民众对政府的不满日盛。民主党和共和党就美国的减赤争执不下，不仅延误法案的通过，更现总统陷入两党政治之争的尴尬。在面对“占领华尔街”大规模民众示威抗议时，政府只能出动军警清理驱赶示威民众，显示了美国政府解决问题手段上的捉襟见肘。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
深陷债务危机的欧洲，除了金融、资金等因素，导致危机愈演愈烈，不断蔓延的主要推手正是欧洲区领导力的缺乏。从历史来看，高福利制度民选政治是欧债危机爆发的根本原因。为了赢得选票，政府不断提高福利，当经济增长超出经济增长速度，支撑福利的税收增长也不能跟上福利开支时，政府只能借债维持，导致政府债务规模的积重难返。因此，主要解决之道是放弃或至少先降低高福利制度。不过，从希腊到法国再到英国，改变现有社会福利制度以及财政紧缩措施已经引发了民众大规模的不满和抗议，使得欧洲政府在解决债务危机正确的道路上裹足不前。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
而2011年阿拉伯世界昔日的政治强人纷纷倒台，本·阿里逃跑、穆巴拉克被抓、卡扎菲被杀，强人统治政治虽然并不民主，但是稳定了本国的政治秩序，为国家发展提供了一个基本的框架。这些国家的动荡和变革后，正等待着新一轮权力分配和政治变革，各方势均力敌，如何重整新的格局还是个未知数。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
总之，由于经济的衰退，整个世界都开始流行对政治制度的怀疑和不满；由于经济的衰退，各国政府的权威受到冲击，在此状态下，各国政府的行为会更大程度上被民意所左右，对外关系上将更多展示“肌肉”而非协商和解，因此各国间的合作的难度加大。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
六、全球领导变弱NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
随着中国、印度、巴西、俄罗斯等新兴市场国家的兴起，国际社会力量对比正趋于均衡，未来世界将进入“G0时代”，即没有超强大国的“无极化时代”。不过没有领导的“G0时代”将是对国际关系的重要考验。根据政治铁律“再坏的政府也比无政府好”，当前的国际社会虽无政府但有秩序的，需要高成本来维护。而进入“G0状态”后，国际社会可能进入弱肉强食的霍布斯时代，国际社会未来的风险加大。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
二战结束后的十年里，美国创造并领导了一套几乎是全球范围内的政治、安全和经济秩序。美国不仅将世界大部分国家（除了苏联以及当时受其控制的社会主义国家）带入了美国搭建的机制中（如联合国、世界银行、IMF和关贸总协定），而且在之后几十年都保持着在这些协定中的主导影响力，这也是美国霸权构成的重要部分。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
但是新兴大国的崛起终结了美国单极霸权的时代，受到国内累积的债务、居高不下的失业率、迟缓的经济发展的影响，美国试图塑造国际秩序的努力也显得力不从心。金融危机后，政府采用巨额的财政救助来拯救金融部门，积累了14万亿美元的财政赤字，而美国经济的长期不景气导致大家对经济增长的信心减少，最终2011年8月，美国国家信用首次被下调。而伊拉克和阿富汗战争的不利，显示了美国军事上的局限性；对“阿拉伯之春”初始的大吃一惊，显示出美国对传统战略重心控制力的下降。随着美国可以投入全球资源的减少，美国软实力的政策制定和威信也正在减少，以美国模式为蓝本的“华盛顿”共识的吸引力减弱。这就解释了为什么“多边贸易谈判的上一次成功——乌拉圭回合谈判结束已经有17年，这个体系却没有能取得任何新的重大进展。”NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
除美国外，传统的世界秩序领导者欧洲，则深陷债务危机自顾不暇。他们希望有人来分担他们的“世界领导者”的重担，但是新兴国家还没有做好承担如此重任的准备。国际社会没有领导的“霍布斯”状态将更为不确定。国际伦敦国际战略研究所(IISS)在其《2011年度战略报告》(StrategicSurvey2011)中很好地阐述了这一观点。IISS认为，美国实力下降造成了地区分裂。根据安全挑战形势的不同，由有意愿和现实可行的相关方组成的联盟将千差万别。也许我们未来十年将面临一个动荡不安、矛盾叠生的世界。NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

The future world will enter the the G0 era ", that is not super big country," The Promise era. Political iron law "It is a bad government is better than no government, the international community although no government, but orderly, the need for costly maintenance. Enter the G0 state, the international community may enter the Hobbs era of the law of the jungle, the international community and increased risk.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
The current world situation patchwork. The main traditional developed economies hit hard day. European debt is growing, has spread to the EU core countries, touching the economic development of the region's most stable countries. The United States' occupation of Wall Street "directed at the financial system, to express the dissatisfaction of the general public on the financial oligarchy, it also reflects the social gap between rich and poor are increasingly the reality of rising inequality. To boost domestic employment, inability to promote economic growth, and turned his attention to the economic vitality of the most active Asia-Pacific region, a high-profile claim that the "Pacific Century". America's "return to Asia" is not only disrupt the pattern of interests in East Asia, to enhance the heat of the East Asian security issues, but also highlights the emergence of the axis of the collapse of Atlantic and Pacific Century. The beginning of the Arab Spring began in 2011 still resonates today, following the escape, Ben Ali Mubarak, Gaddafi killed, Russian and American aircraft carriers were approaching Syria, Middle East, war seemed imminent. World into chaos, and turbulence magnitude, breadth, depth than ever before. Future trend of the world? How to grasp the trend of the world? Whether there will be a "black swan event? There are six trends worthy of our attention.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
, The world economy has entered a long period of recessionNVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
The world economy has entered a long-term depression of the next 10 to 15 years, the world is in a stage downstream of the long economic cycle determined by the technical innovation. Means that the economy in the next ten years is very difficult obstacle to the development will be that the speed will be slower, less investment, less employment, political conflict will be more.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
In general, the boom-bust cyclical process of economic development. Cyclical fluctuations in short-cycle is divided into consumption decisions, and manufacturing decisions in the cycle, as well as the long period determined by the scientific and technological innovation, namely, "Kondratieff long-wave theory, by the internationally renowned economist Kondratieff 1926, he believes that the long period by the innovation or the 50-60 year economic cycle, the fixed capital replacement open. After the end of the 18th century, the world has experienced three long-period, respectively, 1789-1849 "industrial revolution" marked by a long period; 1849-1896 steam and steel, the second long period ; the advent of the electrical era in 1896 into the decline of the third period to 1920.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
In accordance with the long-wave theory, since the 1980s, to computers, the Internet as a symbol of the information revolution opens up a new economic cycle, under the leadership of the IT revolution, not only after the United States out of recession in 1991, maintaining a than a decade of sustained growth, while the rest of the world's major economies have also maintained good growth momentum, sharing the fruits of globalization.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Experienced more than two decades of long-wave upstream stages of the new century, the world economy three inflection point: One is the NASDAQ stock market crash, marking the original activities of Internet-oriented high-tech industry high-frequency tends to dry the cost competitiveness, which will lead to the decline in profitability of the high-tech industries, so a lot of capital to withdraw from the Nasdaq Stock Market; The second is the proportion of FDI share of global GDP in the world also began in 2000 tended to decline; world fixed capital formation in the proportion of global GDP began to decline. These events marked the arrival of Kant Lackey Aliyev long downward phase of the cycle. With the outbreak of the 2008 U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, soaring international oil and food prices, financial market turmoil, the world economy faces the risk of further decline.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
The process of globalization has slowed.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Globalization into a relative stagnation of global cooperation more difficult. Globalization originated in the 1492 Columbus geography previous world isolated from each other. With the rise of capitalism, the pursuit of wealth-driven capitalism on a global scale to find the resources to expand the market, and gradually their enclosed area with globalization, the spread of the world, but the development of globalization ups and downs.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
The latest round of globalization climax began in the late 1970s, early 1980s, began in the Reagan revolution and China's reform and opening-up. America the Reagan administration was established in 1981 to implement a free market economy in the country, began to significantly reduce the state financial management, the repeal of many laws and regulations, leading to the free flow of international capital on a global scale; 1978, China's reform and opening up, making the world's total fifth of the population to participate in global market competition, added to the process of globalization, further expand the scale of globalization, these have contributed to the wave of globalization of the new one.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Globalization of high intake after 30 years of triumph, achieved great results. For example, the BRIC countries and emerging economies to join the global process, the equivalent of more than 3 billion people added to the big stage of the world market; global configuration of the factors of production efficiency, and promote the world economy was the biggest growth; people's living standards improved, according to the report of the World Bank, the world's poor in 2005 from 1.9 billion in 1981 to 1.4 billion.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
But globalization is also a double-edged sword, from a historical perspective, for a lot of people welfare, but also brought a lot of imbalance. Such as the imbalance of the world economy, one side is the largest producer of the other side of the country of consumption; some developing countries, is facing not only the impact of sovereignty, economic security, values, also of economic globalization "marginalized" to share the fruits of globalization ; a sudden increase of industrialization and urbanization, population, exacerbated by resource constraints, and the increasingly serious environmental damage. Before we see the achievements of globalization, should be concerned about its costs and consequences.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
More serious is the globalization in developing countries, as well as between developing and developed countries to cause psychological barriers. Such as the "Arab Spring" in the country, failed to seize the opportunities of globalization to achieve the upgrade of the national economic structure, still rely on a single tourism, canals and oil revenues, but also by developed countries, the crisis of global inflation performance passed on to become the weakest link in the global crisis, the outbreak of social unrest, and then to become the failed state of globalization. In addition, the newly industrialized countries benefit most from globalization, fierce competition in the field of trade, investment and other Western countries, leading to the Western psychological imbalance, economic and political power may be lost in the emerging world of uneasy and began widespread use of trade protection. A result, the initiator of regret, the loser resistance, anti-globalization sentiment is formed, and the momentum is growing. Originally the Veuve moving the process of globalization may occur in three situations: retrogression, stagnation, slowed.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
But we can hold slightly more optimistic attitude, globalization can not be reversed or set back. On the one hand, and promote the globalization of technology as the release of the Wizard of magic bottle. Social networks and the popularity of the Internet makes people in different parts of the exchange to an unprecedented expansion of the Government of any State of this trend are difficult to block. In addition, the policy level, the global multilateral governance platform continues to expand, such as the WTO, the G20, the APEC, the East Asia Summit, to maintain the global economy, trade order, the stage of coordination and communication in order to reduce friction.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
But in a downward phase in the global economy, the world is increasingly divided, split case, the development of globalization will inevitably be affected, the most likely to globalization slow or stagnant, resulting in the decline of the effectiveness of the countries of the world economy "interdependent" countries may tend to the expense of others, reduce the expected profit from the cooperation, leading to increased international cooperation more difficult.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
The rise of three medium-sized countries MassNVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
The rise of the mass of a group of middle powers leap into the world stage, the international game is more complex. Medium-sized countries generally refers to the strength between large and small countries, the development of comprehensive national strength is good, with quite the material basis, or at least is a big country in a particular area, with the appropriate international authority and a relatively independent foreign policy strategy for the international community recognized , and be able to play an active and constructive role and regional influence. Also not the exact definition of middle power, but from a practical point of view, in addition to the outside of the BRIC countries Brazil, India, South Africa, including Turkey, Vietnam, Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other countries.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Groups the rise of the middle powers in the context of the relative decline of the world financial crisis and Western strength, but they laid the foundation to participate in the international game by virtue of the rapid economic development and good natural endowments.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Middle powers in the most dazzling of the BRIC countries, for example, in 2011 the emerging economies Blue Book "pointed out, the 2000s, the average economic growth of emerging economies over 6%, of which India more than 7%, Russia more than six % of the BRIC countries as a whole average growth rate of over 8%, far higher than the developed countries the average growth rate of 2.6% and about 4.1% of the global average growth rate. South Africa nearly a decade the average annual growth rate of around 3% in most years higher than the average level of developed countries. IMF report: the economic growth of emerging economies will be more than 6 percent, while developed countries is only about 2 percent in the next few years revival difficult. The emerging economies will become the main force to drive global economic growth. After the 2008 financial crisis, the loss of the traditional Western powers heavy losses, inability to maintain the stability of the global market system alone, the initiative to invite the emerging countries to participate in clean up the mess in order to jointly cope with the damage caused by the financial crisis and the growing number of global issues, and further integration global order. "traditional powers to draw the object on the rise of the middle powers is not only economic and political great power game for the object.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
In future international competition, the strength of the five who received the support of more medium-sized country, who will prevail in the great power game. Therefore, the traditional power to please the middle powers to increase competition in chips. Emerging market economies in the world economic and political map of the status of substantial improvement, breaking the international pattern of the five centers of power in the past 30 years, their relationship with existing international club determines the future stability of the world or not.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Fourth, global issues continue to deteriorateNVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Global issues generally refers to common in the world, related to the fundamental interests of humankind, the threat to human survival and development and the future fate of the major issues, such as war and peace, demographic issues, resource constraints and environmental degradation, polarization, climate changes, etc. , Due to the absence of means to get people's attention and research since the 1972 global issues, global governance trapped in the collective action dilemma, not only the old problems more play more intense, new problems have emerged. With this round of financial crisis, the debt problem in developed countries continue to simmer, the issue of global financial regulation among which. The importance and urgency of the traditional security issues have been gradually replaced by non-traditional security issues.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
While world peace is not completely resolved, but world-wide hot war unlikely, but regional wars and conflicts have occurred, does not rule out the involve big countries to join, resulting in an escalation of the conflict may be. October 31, 2011, the birth of the Philippine baby Danica Camacho symbol of the world's population exceeded 70 million human beings will face "formidable challenges". According to previous data of the United Nations Population Fund, in accordance with the current trends, the world's population in about the middle of this century more than 9 billion this century will be over 10 billion. How the world will weight forward? There is no doubt the world's population surge in the water scarcity, desertification, biodiversity loss range of environmental issues to worse, resources are more tense than before.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Take water for example, in December last year, World Bank joint report noted that other international agencies jointly issued a report on the status of water resources at present, about 2 billion people living in water-stressed areas, while in 2030 The world will have 1/3 of the population distribution in the high tension of water resources in the region. The report is expected in the next 20 years, worldwide demand for water will increase by 40%, some of the needs of developing countries may increase by more than 50%. Perhaps caused by the water crisis in the future, war is no longer a prophecy.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Global issues, there have been new features. Previously, the bitter fruit of the global issues are often pocketed by developing countries, the aftermath of the current deterioration of the global problem has spread to developed countries. From the Arab Spring to Summer in London to Wall Street and death, reflecting the divide between rich and poor has become the world's most common and most serious problem, the problem is hidden deeper in the developed world. According to the Economic Policy Institute, 2009, the richest 1 percent of assets of the family is 225 times the ordinary middle-class families, the highest. Before the recession, according to the latest report released by the IMF's Finance & Development magazine, America's richest 1% of the population enjoys 23.5% of the wealth of society as a whole (the last century, the 1970s, only 10%) financial crisis in 2008, this proportion decreased slightly, but rose to about 40% by 2009. The following segments of the population, 80% of social enjoy only 7% of the total wealth of society.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Five countries of the "weak leadership" eraNVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Countries around the world lack of leadership is becoming a global problem. On the one hand, the next wave of globalization, mass political booming, on the other hand, the use of new technologies to change the form of political behavior. In order to win votes from the phenomenological point of view, the leaders of Europe and the United States and other developed countries fully cater to voters; political strongman of some medium-sized countries face the dilemma of collective class, domestic factional disputes over an extended period will be in the power vacuum in the state.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
In the Arab Spring, suffered high inflation and high unemployment against the masses can not stand on the herd instinct, took to the streets, their program, and no organization. "Facebook and Twitter, the new information tools widely used in sports, a large number of real-time dissemination of information, which makes the past protracted in order to achieve political mobilization and social organization can be done in an instant, in order to break the information top-down dissemination of the hierarchy of power, so that everyone has seen and heard, that can spread from their own perspective and ability to express personal political requirements above. Therefore, the use of new technologies to further promote the rise of mass politics, the Government of the decline of public control over.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
In the beginning of the United States, President Barack Obama took office, to give up the term of office of President George W. Bush "war on terror" requires infinite expansion of presidential power, he set a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq, to ​​abandon unilateralism, attention and its allies co-operation came into contact with the Islamic world. As the financial crisis, the Obama administration do nothing to boost the economy and expanding employment, increasing prevalence of public discontent with the government. Democrats and Republicans on deficit reduction, the United States disputes no less than, not only to delay the passage of the bill, but also the current president into a battle of the bipartisan political embarrassment. In the face of the occupation of Wall Street "large-scale public protests, the government can only be dispatched military police clean-up drive away protesters stretched means that the U.S. government to solve the problem.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
The debt crisis of Europe, in addition to the financial, capital and other factors, led to the crisis intensified, the continuous spread of the major promoter of the lack of European leadership. From a historical point of view, the high welfare system for elected politics is the root cause of the outbreak of the debt crisis in Europe. In order to win votes, the government continuously improve the welfare, when economic growth exceeds the rate of economic growth, support the growth of welfare of the tax can not keep up with welfare spending, the government can only borrow to maintain, resulting in the government debt-scale die-hard. Therefore, the main solution is to abandon or at least to reduce the high welfare system. However, from Greece to France and then England, to change the existing social welfare system and the fiscal austerity measures have triggered a public mass discontent and protest, the European governments hesitate on the correct road to resolve the debt crisis.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
2011 the Arab world, the former political strongman after another fall of Ben Ali to escape, Mubarak, Gaddafi was killed, the strongman rule of politics is not democratic, but to stabilize the country's political order provides for national development a basic framework. Turmoil and change in these countries are waiting for a new round of distribution of power and political change, the parties are evenly matched, how to restructure a new pattern is unknown.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
In summary, due to economic recession, the whole world became popular in the political system doubt and discontent; due to economic recession, the authority of national governments under attack in this state, the Governments of the behavior to a greater extent by public opinion about , External Relations will show more "muscle" rather than negotiate a settlement, so cooperation between the countries more difficult.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Six, the global leader in weakerNVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
With the rise of China, India, Brazil, Russia and other emerging market countries, the international community of power are becoming balanced, and the future world will enter the "the G0 era", that is not super big country, "The Promise era. However, there is no leadership "G0 era" will be an important test of international relations. Political iron law "It is a bad government is better than no government, the international community although no government, but orderly, the need for costly maintenance. Enter the G0 state, the international community may enter the Hobbs era of the law of the jungle, the international community and increased risk.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Decade after the end of World War II, the United States created and led a nearly worldwide political, security and economic order. United States not only in most countries of the world (except the Soviet Union and was controlled by the socialist countries) into the mechanism set up by the United States (such as the United Nations, World Bank, the IMF and GATT), and in the decades after to maintain the dominant influence in these agreements, this is an important part of U.S. hegemony.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
But the rise of emerging powers, the end of the era of U.S. unipolar hegemony by the accumulation of domestic debt, high unemployment, slow economic development, the United States is trying to shape the efforts of the international order also appeared to be inadequate. After the financial crisis, the Government has adopted a huge amount of financial aid to rescue the financial sector, has accumulated $ 14 trillion budget deficit, while the U.S. long-term economic downturn led to reduced confidence in the economic growth, and ultimately in August 2011, the United States national credit first down. Adverse Iraq and the war in Afghanistan, shows the limitations of the U.S. military; "Arab Spring" initial surprise, showing that the decline in the control of traditional strategic focus. With the United States can be put into the reduction of global resources, policy development and prestige of America's soft power is also reduced, modeled on the American model for the less attractive of the "Washington consensus. This explains why a successful multilateral trade negotiations - the Uruguay Round of negotiations to end 17 years, this system has not made any significant progress. "NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Besides the U.S., the traditional leader of a world order in Europe, the debt crisis leg to stand on. They want someone to share the burden of their "world leader", but the emerging countries is not ready to undertake such an important responsibility to prepare. Hobbes' state of the international community led by the more uncertain. International London International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in its 2011 Strategy Report "(StrategicSurvey2011) expounded this view. IISS believes that American power due to reduced regional division. , A coalition of parties will and realistic will vary depending on the security challenges of the situation. Maybe we next ten years will face a turbulent world of contradictions storeyed.NVBRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语