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巴西、俄罗斯及印度币值年底前可能至少再贬值15%。

彩虹汉语-rainbowmandarin.com

Currency by the end of Brazil, Russia and India may be at least 15 percent

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 kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

全球经济和资本流动放缓,加速资金撤离新兴市场,金砖四国货币同创1998年以来,单季最大跌幅,令不少跨国及本土企业蒙受沉重的汇兑损失。分析指,巴西、俄罗斯及印度币值年底前可能至少再贬值15%。
 
巴西、俄罗斯、印度及中国等合称「金砖四国」(BRICs)的新兴国,过去10年来增长逾4倍,但受到全球经济放缓的大趋势影响,最近半年汇率均大幅下跌,可谓赢家变输家。
 
外围积弱 本土经济困扰多
 
4个新兴经济体近年备受本土经济问题困扰,令投资者纷纷撤离资金。巴西的消费者违约比率现已升至2009年来最高水平;俄国的石油出口价格跌至18个月来低位;印度预算赤字扩阔;中国楼价则下挫,「保八」难度不低。
 
巴西央行的数据显示,投资者5月从该国股市和债市撤资63亿美元,为2010年有纪录以来的最大金额;俄国首5个月的资金流走高达465亿美元,单是5月已流走58亿美元。
 
巴西雷亚尔 本季贬值12%
 
4国的币值今季持续下跌,巴西雷亚尔贬值12%,为彭博社31只最活跃交投货币中跌幅最大;俄罗斯卢布和印度卢比亦跌11%;中国人民币自4月扩阔汇率浮动区间后,跌幅亦为近年之最的1.2%。
 
新兴市场货币急速贬值,不少跨国和本土企业均遭受汇兑损失。摩根大通分析师表示,可口可乐因雷亚尔转弱,第二季盈利或减少3,000万美元,故将密切关注可口可乐未来是否依赖当地市场作为其收入来源。印度公用事业和运输公司Essar Group亦指,卢比下跌令通胀加剧,故未能减低公司的借贷成本。
 
摩根士丹利前全球货币研究主管任永力(Stephen Jen)指,巴俄印币值年底前可能至少再贬15%;对冲基金FX Concepts LLC创办人John Taylor亦料,卢布和卢比至年底将有相当程度的跌幅。
 
眼见货币压力不减,国内经济问题多多的印度,昨日公布支持汇率的措施,进一步允许外国投资当地的债券市场。
 
印度出招 开放债市挺卢比
 
央行提高外国投资者持有当地债券的金额上限,由150亿增至200亿美元;本土企业向海外银行借贷的上限,亦由300亿增至400亿美元;更准许海外主权财富基金、跨国企业、退休基金和海外央行等投资当地国债。
 
上周五卢比跌至每57.3275卢比兑1美元的历史低位,逼令央行出招,阻止资金进一步流走;卢比昨回升最多1.3%,曾高见56.395。

 kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

 kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

 kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

Global economy and capital flows slow down, accelerate capital withdrawal from emerging markets, BRIC currencies Genesis 1998, one-quarter the largest decline, many multinational and local businesses suffered heavy foreign exchange losses. The analysis refers to the currency of Brazil, Russia and India before the end of the year may be at least 15 percent devaluation.kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Emerging countries such as Brazil, Russia, India and China, collectively known as the "BRIC" (BRICs), the past 10 years, an increase of more than four times, but the global economic slowdown, the major trend of the past six months the exchange rate fell sharply, can be described as the winner change losers.kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Periphery and weak local economic worrieskwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
The four emerging economies much local economic problems in recent years, investors have been withdrawing funds. Consumer default rates in Brazil, has now risen to its highest level in 2009; Russia's oil export prices have fallen to 18 months low; India's budget deficit is widening; Chinese property prices fell, "guarantee" the difficulty is not low.kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Brazil central bank data show that investors divestment from the country's stock and bond markets in May $ 6.3 billion, the largest amount since records began in 2010; the first five months in Russia outflow of funds up to $ 46.5 billion in May alone flow away $ 5.8 billion.kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Brazilian Real this season 12% devaluationkwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
4-country currency this quarter continued to decline, the Brazilian Real depreciated by 12 percent, Bloomberg 31 most actively traded currency in decline; the Russian ruble and the Indian rupee fell 11%; Chinese yuan after widening the trading band in April decline also in recent years the most 1.2%.kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Emerging market currencies rapidly devalued, many multinational and local companies are subject to foreign exchange losses. JP Morgan analysts said Coca-Cola Yinleiyaer weakening second-quarter earnings or a decrease of $ 30 million, it will pay close attention to the Coca-Cola future dependent on the local market as their source of income. Utility and transportation companies in India Essar Group has also pointed out, the rupee fell to inflation, we are unable to reduce the company's borrowing costs.kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Morgan Stanley former global head of currency research Jen, Stephen Jen, refers to Russia and India of Pakistani currency by the end of may at least be demoted 15%; hedge fund FX Concepts, LLC founder, John Taylor, is also expected, the ruble and rupee end of the year there will be a considerable degree decline.kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Seeing the currency pressure diminished, the domestic economic problems in India yesterday announced measures to support the exchange rate, and further to allow foreign investment in local bond market.kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
India moves to open bond very RskwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Central bank to raise the maximum amount of foreign holdings of local bonds, increased from 15 billion to $ 20 billion; local businesses to overseas banks lending limit, also increased from 30 billion to $ 40 billion; to allow overseas sovereign wealth funds, multinational corporations , pension funds and foreign central banks invest in local government bonds.kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Last Friday rupee fell to 57.3275 rupees per U.S. dollar historically low levels, effectively forced the central bank moves to prevent further flow away funds; rupees yesterday rebounded up to 1.3% had Takami 56.395.
kwnRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

 
 
 
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