中国养老金缺口明年高达18万亿 延迟退休成必然

对于延长企业职工退休年龄问题，各界至今仍无定论。养老金到底有没有缺口？如果缺口确实存在，那么规模有多大？经济参考报报导，最新发布的研究报告「化解国家资产负债中长期风险」预测，到2013年，中国养老金的缺口将达到18.3兆（万亿）。分析人士据此认为，延迟退休成必然趋势。LXPRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

上述报告指出，人口老龄化冲击下中国养老金的统筹帐户，将给财政造成巨大负担。建议实施延迟退休年龄，国有股画拨，机关事业单位改革等多措施以缓解压力。LXPRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

报导指出，对于养老金这一隐形债务，各相关部门都有自己的测算和判断。根据人力资源与社会保障部统计，截至2011年年末，企业职工养老金目前结余1.9兆，所以从全国层面看，不存在养老金缺口的问题。此外，人社部有关负责人说，未来全国养老保险基金能够做到长期收支平衡。但从另一角度看，不加改革的前提下，未来中国养老金的支付危机和因此对国家财政造成的支付压力增大似乎已经是不争的事实。LXPRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

上述研究报告的主要撰写者之一、来自中国银行研究团队的廖淑萍表示，本次研究结果和政策建议，是利用推测法和估算法，基于国家统计局往年已发表的数据作为存量基础，加上每年的流量变化，逐年累计而成。以此方法测算，到2013年，中国养老金的缺口将达到18.3兆，在目前养老制度不变的情况下，往后的年份缺口逐年放大，假设GDP年增长率为6%，到2033年时养老金缺口将达到68.2兆，占当年GDP的38.7%。「由于人口老龄化的影响，退休人员数量越来越多，退休人员领取退休金的时间越来越长，导致国家的养老保险支出越来越庞大。」廖淑萍说。LXPRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

在这样的背景下，相关部委对「延迟退休」以缓解养老金压力的想法由来已久。对此，中央财经大学社会保障研究中心主任褚福灵表示，「政策环境和社会环境的大变化，使得弹性延迟领取基本养老金已经成为必然趋势。LXPRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语

For extending the retirement age of enterprise employees, the community has so far remained open. Pension in the end there is no gap? If the gap does exist, then the scale? Economic Information Daily reported that recently released a research report "to resolve the State assets and liabilities and long-term risk prediction, 2013, the Chinese pension gap will reach 18.3 trillion (trillion). The analysis thus believe that the delay retirement as an inevitable trend.LXPRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
LXPRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
The report pointed out that the co-ordination of the Chinese pension account under the impact of population aging, will cause huge financial burden. Propose to delay the retirement age, state-owned shares painted dial, government departments and institutions reform measures to relieve the pressure.LXPRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
LXPRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
Reported that, for pension stealth debt, the relevant departments have their own estimates and judgments. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, as of the end of 2011, enterprise employees pension balance of 1.9 trillion, so to see from the national level, there is the issue of the pension gap. In addition, the person in charge of Human Resources and Social Ministry said that the national pension insurance fund can do long-term balance of payments in the future. But from another point of view, without the premise of the reform, the future pension payments crisis and therefore the payment of state financial pressure increases seems is an indisputable fact.LXPRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
LXPRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
The lead author of the above-mentioned study, the research team from the Bank of China Liao Shuping said, the research findings and policy recommendations is the use of extrapolation and estimation method, based on data published by the National Bureau of Statistics in previous years as a stock basis, plus annual flow changes, year by year from accumulated. This method is estimated to 2013, China's pension gap will reach 18.3 trillion in the current pension system is the same, the next year gap year after year to enlarge, assume GDP growth of 6% by 2033 The pension gap will reach 68.2 trillion, accounting for 38.7 percent of GDP that year. "Because of the impact of an aging population, the number of retirees, more and more retirees receive their pensions more and more time, resulting in an ever-growing national pension insurance expenditures." Liao Shuping said.LXPRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
LXPRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语
In this context, the relevant ministries on the idea of ​​"delayed retirement" to alleviate the pressure of pension for a long time. In this regard, Chu Fu-ling, director of the Central University of Finance and Social Security Research Center, "said the big changes in policy and social environment, making the flexibility to delay the basic pension has become an inevitable trend.LXPRainbow Mandarin 彩虹汉语